LOS ANGELES -- Hostage theory in international relations can explain why a lot of things do not happen. There's no better example than the North Korean crisis. The reason for continuing to talk to the North Koreans is not that we like them; it's that we care about the South Koreans.

Some officials in the Bush administration would be happy to firebomb Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, back to before the Stone Age. It wouldn't take all that much, actually; the United States already has the power in place within that theater to do the job. But that's not going to happen, and for a very simple reason: Seoul, the sprawling capital of South Korea, is being held hostage.

The hostage-taker is the enormous army of North Korea. Seoul is a short enough distance to North Korea for the latter to turn the former into one big campfire with its vast artillery arsenals -- even if only a third of them actually work. Rockets and mortar fire would rain on the metropolis of 10 million people, many would die, and much would burn to the ground.