CHIANG MAI, Thailand -- Analysts tend to classify U.S. policies toward Asia -- and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, in particular -- according to two irreconcilable stereotypes: the "unchangeable pattern," in which administrations come and go while fundamental American perceptions remain the same; and the "presidential pattern," in which related policies are personally shaped by each president and his inner team.
While both patterns have advantageous elements, it would be misleading to abide by one to the total exclusion of the other. The benign neglect of Southeast Asia in the aftermath of the 1997 financial disaster could hardly be ascribed to unalterable fundamentals that transcended the options for a U.S. administration. In fact, it was the result of an unfortunate decision by the Clinton administration.
A similar point could be made with regard to America's so-called sidelining of Japan in the late 1990s -- while it pursued a more intense pro-China policy.