Speculation swirls around the defense-policy review being conducted by the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush. Surprising results are anticipated, not only because timorous guesses rarely command media attention, but also because the administration has shown no reluctance to challenge fundamental parts of American policy. So far, however, rhetoric seems to be outpacing reality. The United States is reassessing defense policy from the bottom up, but the signs of continuity seem to outweigh the changes. More importantly, the Bush administration is giving allies a chance to consult and influence the future of alliance defense. They should seize the opportunity.

Mr. Bush took office promising radical shifts in the U.S. approach to national defense. During the campaign, he expressed skepticism about multilateral force deployments under the U.N. flag and hinted at a withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Balkans. The revolution in military affairs was alleged to provide the foundation for a rethink of the U.S. forward presence throughout the world. The attention given to "new threats" to the U.S., such as the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, only added to allies' concerns.

Once confirmed, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld set up several panels to review U.S. policy. Allied governments have held their breath ever since, looking for clues to U.S. thinking in every statement and leak from Washington. At this point, facts are still scarce, but some conclusions seem inescapable.

First, the Bush administration is committed to some form of missile defense. Second, there is a growing sense that Asia is assuming a higher profile in defense contingency planning. Third, a shift in defense spending is inevitable, although it seems premature to credit reports that the U.S. will back away from doctrine that requires it to be ready to fight two regional wars at the same time.

Reality has already put paid to some of the more extreme suggestions and fears. Despite the earlier calls to withdraw U.S. troops from the Balkans, Mr. Rumsfeld last week reassured his NATO colleagues of the continuing U.S. commitment to the region. Similar forces are at work in this part of the world. Worries that the U.S. would take a radical new hard line on the Korean Peninsula were allayed when Mr. Bush announced last week that his administration would resume negotiations with North Korea. A resumption of talks was inevitable. There is no alternative to diplomacy when dealing with such matters.

Domestic political forces will dull the sharp edges of the more extreme proposals in the defense review. Although the Pentagon needs reform, spending plans have powerful constituencies in Congress and within the various services. Given the new balance of power in the Senate, Mr. Bush will need every ally he can muster to move forward on his political agenda. He cannot afford to alienate potential supporters by cutting their pet projects.

Still, the international environment has changed, and the new administration is taking a fresh approach to security. The commitment to missile defense is part of this new look. Administration officials repeat at every opportunity that the U.S. will pursue some form of missile defense; indeed, no politician can afford to turn his or her back on a security option that protects U.S. personnel and property at home or abroad.

But a focus on missile defense obscures broader shifts that are taking place. Missile defense is part of a package of strategies, which includes anti- and counter-proliferation measures and deep cuts in nuclear arsenals. Taken together, mutually assured destruction, the doctrine that has guided defense planning since the darkest days of the Cold War, is under assault. If that can be dispensed with, then all nations will benefit: It is hard to defend a security strategy based on shared destruction.

Skeptics claim that the talk of a new paradigm is just that: rhetoric designed to cloak U.S. plans for continuing global domination. But there are signs of a genuine reorientation. Upon announcing his plan to proceed with missile defense, Mr. Bush dispatched envoys around the world to consult with allies and other governments and solicit their views. The U.S. seems serious about plans to work with allies on that program. Since other governments, including Japan, are funding research on theater missile defense, heeding their input on deployment is only natural. In one revealing sign, Washington is already working with Russia to set up a joint early-warning center.

If that sort of cooperation serves as the foundation of the new defense policy, U.S. allies need not be worried by the defense review. Rather, they should rejoice -- and then take up the responsibility of getting involved and helping to build a safer world.