Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi faces a tough diplomatic test as he braces for his first overseas trips since taking office. On June 30 he will meet U.S. President George W. Bush at Camp David. In late July, he will attend the summit of the Group of Eight leading industrialized nations in Genoa, Italy.

At home, Koizumi is drumming up support for his reform campaign in the runup to July's Upper House election. So far he has been doing very well. In one opinion poll after another, he continues to enjoy approval ratings of over 80 percent. His decision not to appeal the leprosy damages suit has boosted his popularity.

But the road ahead looks bumpy. For one thing, Koizumi's plan to shake up the system for using road taxes is meeting stiff resistance from within his Liberal Democratic Party. He also faces tough demands from the Bush administration to open up the domestic market and remove regulatory barriers. Domestic industries involved are ready to fight back.

Meanwhile, the situation in Asia is changing rapidly. The big question is how Japan is going to meet regional changes from a long-term perspective. Is Koizumi prepared?

India and Pakistan are playing a complex power game, with the United States and China joining the fray. India is warming rapidly to America. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, following visits to Tokyo and Seoul to explain the U.S. plan to build missile defenses, flew to New Delhi to brief Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and other Indian leaders on the plan. India, though not a U.S. ally, threw its weight behind the missile defense project. The two nations also agreed to promote broad cooperation in the area of security.

Meanwhile, Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji visited Pakistan in an effort to bolster relations in tangible ways, such as the sale of MIG fighters. While the U.S. and China are facing off in this volatile subcontinent, India is calling for a summit meeting with Pakistan.

In Indonesia, the political crisis over moves to impeach President Abdurrahman Wahid threatens stability throughout Southeast Asia. In the absence of strong leadership, that multiethnic nation could become the "Yugoslavia of Asia" if the separatist and independent movements in Aceh and elsewhere escalate.

The economic chaos and security lapse in Indonesia could also affect the safety of sea lanes in Southeast Asia, which are vital to Japan's economy. If only for this reason, Japan cannot watch the Indonesian crisis from the sidelines.

In mid-May, the U.S. and Indonesian navies conducted a joint exercise. During testimony at a confirmation hearing at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee May 23, the new ambassador to Japan, Howard Baker, said the Bush administration "intends to enhance bilateral cooperation on areas of shared concern," referring to Indonesia, along with the Korean Peninsula, China and Russia.

In late May, the third Asia-Europe Meeting of foreign ministers from 10 Asian nations and all 15 European Union states issued a chairman's statement stressing the need to promote inter-Korean dialogue and to maintain the Kyoto Protocol on world climate change.

The U.S. is not an ASEM member. China, the host nation, apparently tried to use the forum to seek "multipolarization" as a way to shut out U.S. unilateralism. But the meeting, it seems to me, made it clear that neither the Korean situation nor global environmental problems can be resolved without U.S. participation.

Nevertheless, China's growing influence should not be made light of. China is scheduled to host an informal summit meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Shanghai in October.

The annual diplomatic report released by the Japanese Foreign Ministry in early May says, "China is rapidly expanding its influence in the international community on the strength of its robust economic growth supported by a policy of reform and openness." The Blue Book describes China's potential this way: "China's transformation is probably the biggest factor that may change the strategic configuration in the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century."

The fact that an official document from the Foreign Ministry has acknowledged China's role in the formation of a new world order in such clear-cut terms is worth noting.

Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka conferred separately with her Chinese and South Korean counterparts on the sidelines of the ASEM forum. But the talks focused on immediate bilateral issues, such as Prime Minister Koizumi's planned visit to Yasukuni Shrine and the controversy over the revision of a junior high-school history textbook.

Lacking in the talks was the broad perspective that promoted long-term cooperation among Japan, China and South Korea for the sake of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

During Senate testimony, Ambassador Baker, referring to America's record trade deficit with Japan, said, "The U.S. is pursuing two key policy goals: encouraging growth in Japan and increasing market access." He added that "we will need to deal with some key sectoral issues, such as autos and auto parts."

Already a suprapartisan group of the U.S. House of Representatives is applying pressure on the Bush administration. Recently the group sent a letter to the president, saying U.S. trade policy should give top priority to opening the Japanese market.

Sectoral issues are likely to create tension in relations between the two nations because they directly affect the interests of the industries involved. It is essential to deal cautiously with these issues so they won't antagonize public sentiment on both sides.

During his Senate appearance, Baker also said, "Over the next few years we will build on this foundation (strengthened security ties) to develop strategic dialogue on bilateral and multilateral security, diplomatic and economic issues."

The Japan-U.S. relationship is the linchpin of Japan's foreign policy. Naturally, the Japanese government must make clear what role it intends to play through strategic dialogue in the formation of a new international order. In his meeting with Bush, Koizumi must spell out a grand vision in this regard and articulate Japan's willingness to fulfill its responsibilities in the international community.