U.S. President George W. Bush, in an attempt to defuse tensions with Beijing after his assertion last week that America would do "whatever it takes" to help Taiwan defend itself, quickly reaffirmed the "one-China" policy. In comments directed toward Taipei, he pointedly asserted, "I certainly hope Taiwan adheres to the one-China policy. And a declaration of independence is not the one-China policy." This caveat is critically important to Beijing, which remains suspicious that "independence" is Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's (and perhaps America's) true objective.
Beijing's fears seem unwarranted, at least in the near term. In my own meetings with Taiwan officials and scholars over the past week, I met no one who thought a declaration of independence was a viable option for Taiwan. In fact, Chen has specifically stated there would be no declaration of independence as long as China did not attempt to reunite Taiwan with the mainland by force. While a referendum on this issue was on the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's agenda when it was in the opposition, President Chen has dropped this idea as one of many (thus far unrecognized and unanswered) peaceful gestures toward Beijing.
In reality, if a referendum were to be held on the issue today, it is expected that fewer than 10-15 percent of Taiwan's population would vote for an immediate declaration of independence. However, this is probably double or triple the number who would vote for reunification with the mainland (now or at anytime in the foreseeable future). The overwhelming majority would prefer to maintain the status quo, primarily because they are concerned that an open declaration of independence would create chaos, if not outright war, across the Taiwan Strait -- a confrontation that no one, including Washington, wants.