The global economy is looking good, reports the International Monetary Fund in the latest issue of its World Economic Outlook. According to the IMF's biannual forecast, released earlier this week, growth will rise 4.2 percent. The pace is picking up: Only six months ago, the Fund projected a 3.5 percent increase. The future looks promising, too: The IMF forecasts 3.9 percent growth in 2001.
From Korea to Indonesia, the outlook has brightened. All the nations of Asia, excluding Japan, posted 2.2 percent growth (on average) for 1998, the year after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression; in 1999, that figure more than doubled to 5.7 percent. The IMF anticipates 6 percent growth in the region this year; Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, forecasts 5.9 percent growth in 2000. Seven key economies of the region -- China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand -- are expected to grow about 5 percent this year.
Don't break out the champagne just yet, though. While the numbers are worth celebrating, there are eddies of discontent. In its annual review of economic prospects, the World Bank, the sister institution of the IMF, voiced concern over the heavy liabilities that continue to hang over financial systems throughout the region. That view is shared by the Asian Development Bank, which has identified China, India, Pakistan and Vietnam as particularly vulnerable to another currency crisis because of weaknesses in financial sectors.