U.S. President Donald Trump is remaking America’s role in the world. In his vision, the U.S. stops underwriting global security and still delivers peace. He has pressed allies to boost their defense budgets, claimed credit for mediating conflicts in Africa and the Middle East and vowed to bring the war in Europe to a close.
Trump was dealt a tough hand. He entered office with wars underway in the Gaza Strip and Ukraine. The U.S. share of global gross domestic product — the basis for its geopolitical heft — is in long-term decline. The question is whether his vision amounts to a blueprint for restoring stability or extending the chaos. Eight months into his second term, there’s a tenuous peace deal in Gaza, but multiple regions have seen their fiercest clashes in decades, and the war in Ukraine continues.
Our base case is that U.S. retrenchment removes the guardrails that have constrained conflict, heightening the risk of regional wars. In a nightmare scenario, it could set the stage for a great-power showdown.
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