In a surprising development, newly elected Liberal Democratic Party president Sanae Takaichi faces the possibility of not being elected the next prime minister when parliament convenes later this month, as Komeito hinted it may not vote for her, and the largest opposition party suggested it would support the head of another opposition force, the Democratic Party for the People.
The LDP’s choice of Takaichi, a hard-line hawkish conservative, in the Oct. 4 election created surprise and concern within Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner. The traditionally more pacifist party’s membership has expressed a number of worries over Takaichi’s hawkish views, how she views Japan’s wartime past and policies that could greatly exclude foreign nationals.
Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito met with Takaichi Tuesday and said that while there was common understanding on those two issues, the two sides were still at odds over money in politics, especially after Takaichi appointed Koichi Hagiuda as the powerful executive acting secretary-general.
Hagiuda was once a high-ranking member of the former political faction headed by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which was at the center of a political slush funds scandal. He failed to report over ¥27 million in political funds, as required by law, and received a one-year suspension from the LDP in April 2024.
For Komeito, it’s critical that the new LDP president take a tough stance on money in politics, which is proving to be a major sticking point in their negotiations for a coalition agreement if Takaichi is elected prime minister.
“The unreported (slush fund) matters have left our party's supporters unsettled,” Saito said following his meeting in which the two only agreed to continue their discussions.
Saito has also said there’s no point in joining forces with an LDP president that is not aligned with Komeito’s values, and that the party would not back Takaichi for prime minister if it was unable to form a coalition with her. One option would be to abstain from voting on the next prime minister in parliament, in which the LDP and Komeito do not have a majority and which would force Takaichi to seek votes elsewhere.
The DPP is one possibility. DPP leader Tamaki and Takaichi share some basic economic policy goals, including wanting to abolish the gasoline tax and raise the tax-exempt annual income tax threshold from ¥1.03 million, although Tamaki is demanding it be increased to ¥1.78 million and Takaichi has not specifically mentioned that figure.
Takaichi reportedly met with Tamaki on Sunday night, even though she’d not yet met with Saito. Asked about what happened at a Tuesday press conference, Tamaki said only that he had no memory of the meeting.
“I’m meeting a variety of people in a variety of settings, but I want to refrain from speaking about each individual meeting, who I met with, and what we talked about,” Tamaki said.
But the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has also hinted it might be willing to support Tamaki in the premier vote rather than its own leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda.
“The CDP is not fixated on Noda as the candidate for the prime ministerial nomination. We want to begin discussions on who to nominate from the viewpoint of who among the opposition parties can gain consensus and secure enough votes to surpass the LDP’s choice (Takaichi),” said CDP Secretary-General Jun Azumi on Tuesday after a meeting with Nippon Ishin no Kai.
The DPP is more cautious about cooperating with the CDP. Speaking to reporters after meeting with Azumi the following day, DPP secretary general Kazuya Shimba said Azumi talked about backing Tamaki half-jokingly. He pointed out, however, that the two parties have different views on constitutional revision, security issues and the role of nuclear power in the nation’s energy mix.
The inability of the LDP and Komeito to forge a quick agreement to keep their coalition together and vote for the newly elected LDP president to become prime minister, as well as the courtship of Tamaki by both Takaichi and the CDP, has created choppy and uncertain political waters at a busy time on the calendar.
Negotiations continue between the LDP and Komeito to agree to cooperate as a coalition, and the opposition parties are pushing for a unified candidate. But there is no sign yet as to when the autumn session of parliament will begin, during which the new prime minister will be decided and the supplementary budget, as well as economic policy measures to deal with high consumer prices, must be passed.
In addition, the next prime minister could host U.S. President Donald Trump, who may visit later this month, and will need to attend the APEC economic leaders' meeting in South Korea on Oct. 31.
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