As the ruling Liberal Democratic Party gets ready to pick its new leader Friday, one dark horse candidate has emerged as a front-runner in the race: economic security minister Sanae Takaichi.
Until recently, her prospects for leadership seemed cloudy, at best.
When she set up a study group late last year to discuss policy with like-minded lawmakers, only a dozen people showed up, raising doubts about whether she would be able to gather the 20 signatures needed to formally put forward her candidacy.
A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi has long harbored ambitions to lead the country. When she tried her luck for the first time in 2021, she gathered the support of 114 party lawmakers. While most of them were affiliated with the Abe faction, the number was second only to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who received 146 votes.
At the time, her hawkish positions, coupled with a poor turnout among the party’s rank-and-file members, put a dent in her candidacy.
Three years later, Abe is gone, and the members of the Abe faction — hit by a slush funds scandal — have split into different camps. However, instead of tanking, Takaichi’s chances of winning appear to be growing.
A recent NTV poll conducted among the party’s grassroots members found that 28% of respondents indicated her as their pick for the leadership, only three points behind former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and well ahead of former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. Other surveys have suggested a similar level of support.
Throughout the campaign, Takaichi was able to put her message across more succinctly than some of her more moderate contenders — giving an impression of competency — all while showing a softer side, for instance when she speaks in the Kansai dialect or introduces the local specialties of her Nara constituency.
She showcased solid policy knowledge and laid out her vision for the country, rallying under the slogan “Make the Japanese archipelago strong and prosperous” — the subtitle of a recent book she co-authored — and underlined her commitment to bolster Japan’s "national strength."
“I have identified clear areas where we need strategic fiscal spending,” she said in a recent debate when asked what distinguished her from the other candidates.
As a sitting member of the Cabinet, she has also enjoyed public visibility.
“She’s the only one who has proved able to present a vision for the next generation, taking into consideration Japan’s national character,” said Upper House lawmaker Shoji Nishida, who supports Takaichi in the election. “Other candidates have all said they want to change the country, without specifying why.”
As minister, in the spring she spearheaded a law to introduce security clearance measures for anyone exposed to classified economic information. She expanded on that topic in a book months later.
In the election, Takaichi will be able to count on the support of hard-line conservatives both inside and outside parliament. Her platform — which includes support for expansive fiscal policies, large-scale public spending on security and promoting nuclear energy — has all the keywords of the Abe agenda.
However, the people who supported her candidacy might turn out to be an Achilles heel.
Among the 20 lawmakers who formally supported her candidacy, 14 of them were once affiliated with the Abe faction. Thirteen of them were found to have underreported portions of income collected from the faction — the misconduct at the core of the recent scandal.
Despite repeated requests from opposition parties, none of the 13 lawmakers — except Nishida — showed up in parliament to explain themselves.
Takaichi’s reliance on these lawmakers is a symptom of her narrow support base within the party.
Her ability to garner internal support was further stymied by former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi’s decision to join the presidential race, with many foreseeing a split in conservative votes. In the 2021 presidential election, Kobayashi was one of her 20 supporters.
A longtime Abe faction member, Takaichi left the group in 2011. As she admitted herself, she prefers spending her nights studying policies rather than going out to dine with her fellow lawmakers— something that has made it difficult for her to broaden her network of allies.
“I’m also very aware of my shortcomings, including the fact that I don’t like going out drinking with my colleagues,” she said in a recent debate.
If a Takaichi administration becomes a reality, it would likely receive heavy scrutiny over how it handles the repercussions of the recent slush fund scandal. Ahead of a general election, that might not be what the party needs.
“Each lawmaker involved has their own issues,” she said in a televised debate last week. “They have already explained the circumstances to their constituents, and some of them have earned some understanding.”
Overall, Takaichi might still be seen as too conservative to serve as the face of a party hoping to broaden its support base among unaffiliated voters, especially given her views on diplomacy.
A TV Asahi opinion poll conducted last weekend on who respondents prefer, Takaichi ranked No. 3, over 15 points behind first-place Ishiba — a sign that her candidacy is struggling to gain traction among the public.
“I want to bring Japan back to the top of the world. That is possible,” Takaichi said when she announced her candidacy on Sept. 9. “After all, there still are so many people who keep working to fulfill their dreams (in this country).”
A newscaster turned politician, Takaichi is a longtime admirer of ‘The Iron Lady,’ former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Now 63, Takaichi is 10 years older than Thatcher was when she defied all odds to become the U.K.’s first female leader.
Will Takaichi be able to follow in her role model's footsteps and become Japan’s first female prime minister? The answer will come on Friday.
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