The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan’s presidential election campaign — which begins Saturday, with the vote taking place Sept. 23 — will be contested by three veterans who mostly agree on broad policy goals but have different views over who to partner with in a potential ruling coalition.
The CDP's members, including the party’s 136 parliamentary lawmakers, face three basic choices.
The first is to stick to the path that incumbent leader Kenta Izumi has charted. They could also embrace former CDP leader Yukio Edano, who is aligned with the party’s more liberal groups and was one of the main architects of a 2021 election cooperation agreement with the Japanese Communist Party (JCP).
Or, they could veer toward former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who has adopted a more conservative stance and backs closer cooperation with Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) — both of which are dead-set against cooperation with the JCP.
Noda said Thursday that the basic strategy in terms of opposition party cooperation should be to seek a middle path. But he also said it was unfortunate that the CDP is now seen more as a left-wing party.
“If this means reaching out to the moderate conservatives, then it could mean a relationship with Nippon Ishin," he said. "My idea is to always maintain a relationship of dialogue with all the other opposition parties. If we can progress from that relationship of dialogue to cooperation, and if we can push the LDP and Komeito out of their majority, there will be many combinations (types of cooperation) that can be made.”
Edano has taken a slightly different approach, saying the emphasis to begin with should be on further defining the party’s own identity and recognizing that it is important to go about electoral cooperation with each individual district in mind. Furthermore, it should reach out to any voter that is disgruntled with the LDP.
“Each region has different backgrounds and circumstances. In Osaka, we’ve been fighting hard with Nippon Ishin over local politics. If we were to say we’ll work together with them, my Osaka and Hyogo colleagues would really be in a bind. In Kyoto, we’ve been fighting the Japanese Communist Party. If we’re asked to collaborate with JCP Kyoto, we'd really be at a loss,” Edano said on television Tuesday evening.
In the middle is Izumi, who has led the party since 2021, but struggled to get the needed 20 signatures of support to run for reelection. At his news conference Friday to announce he would run, Izumi tried to appease all sides.
“I’ve always said the CDP must show a determination to take power and win elections by itself, rather than to cooperate with any other party. Although there are calls for all opposition parties to fight together as one, each party has a very different feel and way of thinking,” he said.
“We’ll work together where we can (with the opposition parties), but we will also fight to win more seats than the LDP, and then consider whether we can come to power as a single party or as a coalition,” Izumi added.
Once the CDP president is determined, the next step will be to prepare for a general election. The advantage of continued cooperation with the JCP in trying to field unified candidates is that it may help avoid splitting the liberal opposition vote in some districts. The disadvantage is that it may also turn off voters who do not like the JCP, including independent voters — a sizable chunk of the electorate.
But teaming up with Nippon Ishin could also be problematic. The party has struggled to increase its popularity outside the Kansai region. Given recent losses by its candidates in local Osaka elections, there are also questions about whether the party might be weakening even in its home base.
If a CDP-Nippon Ishin-DPP election agreement were to be forged, success at the polls may determine the future viability of the CDP as a party, political journalist Tetsuo Suzuki said.
“The CDP is unlikely to split after the leadership election and could work in cooperation during a general election with Nippon Ishin and the DPP,” Suzuki said.
“However, if this coalition loses miserably in the general election, a split is possible.”
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