The U.S. on Tuesday approved the sale of $360 million worth of armed drones and loitering munitions to Taiwan as Washington doubles down on helping Taipei counter a potential Chinese attack on the self-ruled island.
The move reflects U.S. efforts to not only bolster Taiwan's asymmetric capabilities but also to use drone swarms to offset any Chinese military advantages in personnel and equipment in a possible conflict — a strategy also embraced by Taipei as it draws lessons from the war in Ukraine.
Announced by the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the potential sale, which must be approved by Congress, includes 291 warhead-equipped Altius-600M drones and 720 Switchblade 300 anti-personnel and anti-armor loitering munitions, marking the 15th arms package approved by U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration.
Both weapons systems can be described as “suicide drones” designed to loiter around an enemy area and attack when instructed.
The DSCA said the munitions are meant to “modernize” Taiwan’s armed forces and help the democratic island “maintain a credible defensive capability” to meet both “current and future threats.”
The Switchblade series, which is being used by the Ukrainian military, was recently unveiled as one of a number of relatively cheap, smart and autonomous attack drones U.S. forces plan to field across multiple domains as early as next year to match China's rapidly growing air and naval power.
Under its Replicator program, the Pentagon plans to produce thousands of these smaller weapons to help counter Chinese military systems and tactics aimed at controlling access to the air and waters around Taiwan and keeping U.S. and allied forces at bay.
These attritable systems are far less expensive to make than larger platforms, put fewer people in the line of fire and can be changed, updated or improved with substantially shorter lead times. They could also be used to protect high-value assets such as aircraft carriers or submarines.
Further evidence of Washington’s plans emerged just weeks ago when U.S. Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo, the new head of the military’s Indo-Pacific Command, told the Washington Post that the Pentagon is planning to thwart any Chinese invasion plans with a new strategy called “Hellscape.”
The idea, he was quoted as saying, is that as soon as China’s invasion fleet begins moving across Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military would deploy thousands of unmanned submarines, unmanned surface ships and aerial drones to flood the area, offset China’s military advantage and give Taiwanese, U.S. and partner forces time to mount a full response.
“I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities ... so that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything,” Paparo told the paper.
The Replicator program, which appears to provide the defense-industrial basis for the Hellscape strategy, was launched last August, with U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks revealing in May some of the drone types set to be mass-produced.
“The first tranche of Replicator capabilities (will) include uncrewed surface vehicles (USV), uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and counter-uncrewed aerial systems (c-UAS) of various sizes and payloads from several traditional and nontraditional vendors,” Hicks, the Pentagon’s No. 2 official, said.
She provided no specifics on sea drones, arguing that certain capabilities remain classified, but said the Defense Department is diversifying its vendor base through a process that allows U.S. and international companies to pitch technologies “in a fast-track process for a prototype contract.”
Hicks said the program, which is expected to eventually include partner nations, has already secured funding of about $500 million for the fiscal year 2024, adding that the Pentagon will now “begin investing in scalable production for these critical capabilities."
Shortly after launching the program, Hicks had pointed to a range of potential systems, including solar-powered surveillance and ground-based logistic support drones. She also hinted at drone swarms flying “at all sorts of altitudes and doing a range of missions."
Washington’s latest arms package for Taipei follows large-scale People's Liberation Army maneuvers held around Taiwan last month designed to test China’s ability “to seize control of crucial areas,” in what was widely seen as a response to the inauguration speech of new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te.
Beijing has vowed to unite the island with the mainland, by force if necessary, and has repeatedly taken swipes at Washington’s Taiwan policy, accusing the U.S. of pursuing “salami-slicing tactics” such as "hollowing out” Beijing’s “One China” principle, having “illegal” official contacts with the island’s government and supplying weapons to the island.
While Washington will want Lai to keep his past pro-independence tendencies in check, experts say that it will continue to beef up Taipei’s defensive capabilities.
In another move to boost these capabilities, new Taiwanese defense chief Wellington Koo revealed Monday that the island is set to take delivery before the end of the year of all 1,700 TOW 2B anti-tank missiles and 100 launchers it had procured from the United States. Delivery was originally slated for completion by 2022, but were delayed due to the weapons failing to pass required U.S. Army tests, Koo said.
Just a few weeks earlier, the U.S. Congress passed an $8.1 billion support package for the Indo-Pacific, with much of the funding tied directly or indirectly to Taiwan. This included $2 billion for the Foreign Military Financing Program for allies and partners in the region, including Taiwan, while also earmarking $1.9 billion to replenish defense equipment and services provided to Taiwan and other regional partners.
In recent years, a stream of top U.S. intelligence and military officials have claimed that China will be “ready” to invade Taiwan by 2027, citing Beijing’s growing military prowess — assertions, however, that many scholars, including in Taiwan, have questioned.
Biden, himself, has even on several occasions appeared to upend the long-standing U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity" — under which the U.S. expresses a strong interest in Taiwan’s security while avoiding an outright promise to defend it — delivering seemingly explicit remarks that Washington would defend it from Chinese attack.
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