The U.S. and Chinese leaders had a message for one another in their first meeting in just over a year: They're both ready to pick up the phone to prevent the worst.
At their summit, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held four hours of talks just outside San Francisco, where they agreed to reopen high-level military-to-military channels as part of a handful of steps that the two countries hope will prevent their relationship from veering into conflict.
However, experts say the agreed measures alone will not be enough to improve what Xi described as the world’s “most important bilateral relationship,” as neither side appeared willing to tackle their fundamental differences head on.
"We're going to continue to preserve and pursue high-level diplomacy with the PRC (People’s Republic of China) in both directions to keep the lines of communication open, including between President Xi and me,” Biden told a news conference after the highly anticipated talks.
“He and I agreed that each one of us could pick up the phone and call directly and we'd be heard immediately." Stressing that the world expects both sides to “manage competition responsibly,” Biden said he and Xi welcomed the reopening of the high-level military communication lines Beijing severed over a year ago in reaction to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan.
With dangerously close encounters at sea and in the air on the rise, there are growing concerns that a conflict between the two superpowers could be triggered by an accident or miscalculation — concerns that are also shared by Biden.
"Miscalculations on either side can cause real, real trouble with a country like China," he said. "I think we're making real progress there." This is why an agreed crisis prevention framework will include telephone conversations between theater commanders, and in addition the U.S.-China Defense Policy Coordination Talks and the U.S.-China Military Maritime Consultative Agreement meetings will be reinstated.
Also included are talks at the ministerial level, with a senior U.S. administration official saying Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is planning to meet his Chinese counterpart once Beijing appoints a successor to former defense chief Li Shangfu, who was removed from his post earlier this year.
The official said Beijing also agreed to “create mechanisms” to address miscalculations, as well as forums for the two sides “to be able to present concerns to the other.” Another important outcome was a deal to launch a working group on counternarcotics, especially on combating the misuse of fentanyl, a leading cause of drug overdoses in the United States. “They’re taking a number of steps that are designed to dramatically curtail those supplies,” said the U.S. official, adding that the Chinese agreed to go directly after companies that make fentanyl precursors.
The two superpowers also said they would launch government talks on the use of artificial intelligence.
The U.S. and many other countries, including Japan, want to establish international norms to prevent incidents that may arise from the unregulated use of this cutting-edge technology, particularly in the military field.
Overall, Biden called the talks “some of the most constructive and productive discussions we’ve had,” adding that the two leaders had made “some important progress” in improving a relationship that has soured over a broad array of economic, security, technology and rights concerns.
But while the “blunt” discussions marked a positive step forward, they also reflected the countries’ fundamentally different views on the overall direction of the relationship, as well as their respective roles in the Indo-Pacific region.
While Biden said that Washington “will continue to compete vigorously” with Beijing, including by aligning its efforts with global allies and partners, Xi reiterated that “major-country competition is not the prevailing trend of current times” and cannot solve the problems facing the bilateral relationship or the world at large.
“Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed, and one country’s success is an opportunity for the other,” Xi said, calling on Washington to “manage disagreements effectively.” Xi also spoke of the need to “appreciate each other's principles and red lines,” and “refrain from being provocative,” a reference likely made in regard to Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a renegade province.
The Chinese leader sought to reassure Biden about Beijing’s intentions toward the democratic island, saying it has no plans for military action against Taiwan in the coming years.
But Xi also called on Washington to honor its commitment to not support Taiwanese independence, as well as to stop arming Taipei and support “China's peaceful reunification.” For his part, Biden said he plans to maintain Washington’s support of the “One China” policy, which “acknowledges” Beijing’s position that there is only one China, but doesn’t say it recognizes Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.
Given the limited progress made on these fundamental frictions, there are doubts as to whether the summit agreements will be enough to truly halt a further downward spiral in bilateral ties.
“There are a number of events in the coming year that can set back the progress made in this meeting,” said Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the Cross Group.
These include escalating territorial disputes in the South China Sea, more economic "de-risking" measures, increased competition over the developing countries in the “Global South,” and presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States, the latter of which will almost assuredly be preceded by a campaign season filled with anti-China rhetoric that could damage ties.
“The era of deep bilateral engagement we’ve seen in past decades is unlikely to return, given the bipartisan consensus in Washington to adopt a tougher stance on China and the prevailing negative public sentiment,” said Cathy Wu, an assistant professor at Virginia-based Old Dominion University.
The Biden administration is focused on preventing a direct clash between the superpowers rather than pursuing substantial engagements, Wu added.
Considering this stance, Beijing is unlikely to initiate engagement, particularly with existing tariffs still in place and the imposition of new sanctions from Washington, she said.
Experts also don’t rule out that China may suspend military talks again should relations worsen.
“The U.S. is more interested in military communications than China,” Hsiao said, noting that Beijing is mainly resuming military dialogue to create goodwill with Washington to extract other concessions in areas it is more interested in.
“If bilateral relations sour again, Beijing may well cut off military communications once more,” she added.
Robert Sutter, an expert in U.S.-China relations at George Washington University, said it's possible the relationship may deteriorate further, despite the consultation mechanisms, as Washington further hardens its approach to China by increasing support for Taiwan and working to strengthen its position to compete with Beijing.
Analysts from the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a recent report that the summit may only mark a cyclical high point in a bilateral relationship that is seemingly at an impasse.
“Negative perceptions of the other side have hardened substantially over the past few years, and relations seem to be caught in a worsening vicious cycle,” the experts wrote.
“This translates into a stalemate — and, in fact, spiraling tensions — that go even further than the typical ‘security dilemma,’ in which each side takes steps to defend itself which in turn generate insecurity for the other, who then responds in kind,” they added.
Indeed, it is not clear that either side is willing to take the steps needed to truly improve relations.
“Washington remains focused on measures to restrict Chinese access to technology, investment and global markets, and China is increasingly reciprocating with measures that could limit the export of key minerals,” said Jake Werner, an East Asia expert at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft think tank.
To put relations on a stable foundation, however, both sides need to start exploring ways to reduce zero-sum pressures and work together in shaping an inclusive global security and economic framework, Werner said, warning that these pressures are likely to continue building as long as Washington and Beijing fail to act on them.
“Without a new orientation, we're in danger of a significant escalation in 2025 after the artificial restraint of the U.S. election season is gone.”
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