U.S.-China war would be ‘disastrous for us all,’ Singapore’s defense minister warns

With U.S.-China relations at a tipping point, Singapore Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen has called on government leaders and military commanders in the Indo-Pacific region to deepen mutual understanding and foster consensus amid growing concerns about the global consequences of a war between the two superpowers.

“The stakes have never been higher,” Ng said Wednesday during the opening ceremony of the three-day IMDEX Asia 2023 naval and maritime exhibition in Singapore.

“In my mind, the top priority for all government leaders, at least in the next decade, if not longer, is to avoid a physical conflict in Asia. ... Should that calamity ever befall us, whatever the cause and post-hoc justifications, the world, as we know it, will be radically changed and indeed impoverished,” he said.

“A simultaneous war in Europe and Asia will be disastrous for all of us,” Ng, 64, warned.

Ties between Washington and Beijing have been in free fall in recent years, with the U.S. and its allies accusing China of undermining the rules-based international order, while Beijing has pointed at the West for seeking to encircle China militarily and trying to contain and suppress its development.

Ng said that while countries near and far are still grappling with the aftermath of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, it’s important to keep in mind that Russia only accounted for 2% of global exports in 2020.

In contrast, a war in Asia could even be “existential for many countries,” the minister said, arguing that as of 2020, China — Asia's largest economic and military power — accounted for nearly 15% of global exports. Beijing is also the top trading partner of countries in Southeast Asia and Australasia.

“The world is dependent on China as a major manufacturer for sundry goods and many essentials for our way of life — our phones, cars, washing machines, clothes, shoes and furniture,” Ng said, noting that no transnational global challenge can be dealt with without China’s input, including the reduction of global carbon emissions.

“Without exaggeration, conflict in Asia could have an effect akin to the aftermath of World War I, where four existing empires were decimated and the world map altered literally for nations and states,” he said.

“Lives, post conflict, will never be the same again.”

Given the high stakes, Ng said that the phrase “too big to fail,” applies “eminently” to the U.S.-China relationship, their relationship with Southeast Asia, other Asian countries and Europe.

That parties are even contemplating the possibility of war, parsing war game outcomes and adjusting strategies, “tells us that we have to redouble our efforts in diplomacy, conflict prevention and mitigation, confidence-building measures and cooperation,” Ng said, adding that this is a priority for all leaders and “we cannot fail our people.”

Ng was also critical of ongoing economic decoupling efforts, saying that ultimately, wherever the line is drawn, the impact of such measures will create “pain for all countries, particularly because countries will increasingly be forced to choose sides.”

“Globalization during periods of wars or conflicts is not possible,” he stressed.

“How and if selective decoupling is meant to work or if it works at all, is anyone’s guess. History as a judge is not kind or encouraging to those who are engaged in economic warfare, however limited, as it can easily slide into the physical.”

Ng also called on regional leaders to renew their commitment to a rules-based order to guide interactions in the maritime domain – particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

In this regard, he called on China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to conclude a substantive code of conduct based on UNCLOS, which has been in the works for 20 years.

The minister also stressed the need to increase efforts to reduce the risk of miscalculations in any domain.

“We must not be complacent because accidents or incidents can occur ... and in today's environment of distress and contestation, any such similar episode could provoke much harsher and protracted responses,” said Ng.

More specifically, he said countries need to increase collaboration and coordination not just among their militaries but also among coast guards and similar agencies to ensure such accidents are averted.