As North Korea looks set to launch a spy satellite, potentially over Okinawa's far-flung islands, the Defense Ministry has ordered the Self-Defense Forces to be ready to shoot down any object that could threaten Japanese territory.
But as dramatic as a shootdown sounds, such a scenario is highly unlikely, with the order more about reassuring a nervous public.
Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada issued the advance order on Saturday after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last week called for the launch of the country’s first military spy satellite. Kim did not give a time frame, but ordered officials to speed up preparations for the already-built satellite’s launch — a hint that it could come soon.
Hamada’s order instructed the SDF to make “preparations to destroy” a ballistic missile, rocket or satellite that looks set to land in Japan, the Defense Ministry said in a statement. The order also instructs troops to “limit the damage, should a ballistic missile or other object” strike Japanese territory.
The preparations include sending Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) ground-based missile-defense batteries to parts of Okinawa, as well as deploying Maritime Self-Defense Force Aegis destroyers — which are equipped with SM-3 interceptors — to waters around Japan.
The MSDF’s SM-3-equipped Aegis destroyers are designed to shoot down ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, while the PAC-3 systems — which have a range of 30 kilometers — are used to intercept missiles that evade the SM-3 layer and are seen as the last line of defense.
Local media reported the PAC-3 systems could be stationed in Okinawa’s Nansei Islands, near Taiwan.
North Korea launched what it said were satellites in December 2012 and February 2016, with Japan labeling both thinly veiled tests of ICBM technology and ordering Aegis destroyers and PAC-3 units to shoot down the rockets should projections show components falling in Japanese territory.
Rocketry experts say that, unlike ballistic missile tests, the North may be aiming to put the satellite payload into polar orbit, meaning the rocket is likely to be launched southward from the Korean Peninsula. Such a move would risk its booster stage and payload potentially falling onto the Nansei chain.
Some observers have voiced concerns that attempting to shoot down a North Korean missile or rocket carrying a satellite could open up the possibility of escalation while also revealing Japan’s detection and interception capabilities to eager watchers in Pyongyang.
For example, if an interceptor were to miss its target, it could throw into question Japan’s defense capabilities, causing knock-on effects for Washington and its allies and partners, who also have American-made defense systems such as the SM-3 and PAC-3.
But Masashi Murano, a Japan chair fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington, said the risk of escalation “would not be very high” in this case, since any intercept by the SDF would only be in the event of an accident, such as if the rocket’s booster or separation stage fails and the booster or payload appear set to plunge into Japanese territory.
As for the success of any shootdown attempt, this would depend heavily on the timing and location of the rocket’s burnout and missile-defense assets, since neither SM-3 missiles or PAC-3 batteries cannot intercept ballistic missiles or rockets during their boost phase.
“If these missile-defense assets are deployed in the right locations, intercepting the fallout is possible,” Murano said. “However, the current orders are only eligible for interception if they fall on Japanese territory and could cause damage to its citizens.
"In other words, if the (space launch vehicle) does not fall on Japanese territory, no intercept will be made," he added.
The planned satellite launch will come as North Korea continues to fire off ballistic missiles and test new weapons systems at an unprecedented clip. These have included powerful intercontinental ballistic missiles — defense-evading shorter-range weapons and nuclear-capable underwater attack drones, among others.
On April 13, North Korea tested a new solid-fueled ICBM that leader Kim Jong Un hailed as a breakthrough in his country’s ability to launch nuclear counterstrikes. In a sign of growing concern over the tests’ impact on Japan, that launch prompted Tokyo to briefly issue a rare warning for residents of Hokkaido to seek immediate shelter.
Last month, Kim Yo Jong, the North Korean leader’s sister, warned that any move by the U.S. or others to shoot down one of its “strategic weapons” over international waters would be regarded as “a clear declaration of war.”
But the order to prepare for a possible shootdown may be more of a political decision than one concerned with actual capabilities.
Japanese defense planners have identified reinforcing its far-flung southwestern islands, which would be uniquely exposed in the event of a conflict with China, as a key goal for the coming years. More importantly, the shootdown readiness order adheres to precedent — similar ones were implemented for the area ahead of the North’s satellite launches in 2012 and 2016.
“Given the sensitivities of local public sentiment in the Nansei Islands, it would make sense for the SDF to show a willingness to protect and reassure them, if there is even a small risk,” Murano said.
“I think this is to reassure the public as well as to verify the readiness of the SDF."
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