As China seeks to further whittle down the list of seven countries in the Americas that still recognize Taiwan, U.S. officials increasingly believe Paraguay may be the island’s next diplomatic ally to flip loyalties to Beijing.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit this week to Guatemala and Belize to shore up two remaining Central American partners underscored her government’s efforts to head off further defections, after Honduras switched its recognition to China last month.

But some U.S. policymakers and independent analysts see Paraguay as the likeliest to ditch Taiwan in the near term, especially if the South American country’s opposition wins the April 30 elections and makes good on its promise to embrace China, as its agricultural lobby has demanded.