Although Japan and South Korea have seemingly made a breakthrough in repairing their rocky relationship with the latter's proposal on how to resolve the festering issue of wartime labor, Seoul’s history of reneging on past promises offers a cautionary tale for the Japanese side.

Indeed, the administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has offered a somewhat muted response to Monday's plan, which says that funds to compensate wartime laborers under Japan’s 1910-1945 colonization of the Korean Peninsula would be raised by “voluntary” private sector donations and paid to a South Korean foundation in place of Japanese companies.

Although much is still up in the air in terms of domestic repercussions in Japan and the durability of the resolution — especially considering how bumpy relations have been over the past decade — the process and outcome seems to have been a positive for the Kishida administration overall.

While diplomatic talks were going on behind the scenes for quite some time, Tokyo waited for the South Korean side to take the first step. Japanese officials quietly avoided making any statement on the issue until South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin made the official announcement of the proposed resolution in Seoul.

Even after the announcement, Kishida avoided a direct response, delegating the government’s reaction to Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi.

“The Kishida administration was initially skeptical about the Korean side’s actual seriousness,” said Masao Okonogi, professor emeritus at Keio University and an expert in Japan-South Korea relations. “Slowly realizing that the South Korean side was making concessions, especially after President Yoon (Suk-yeol’s) speeches last August and last Wednesday, the administration felt increasingly positive about it.”

Yoon declared his intention to improve bilateral ties with Tokyo last August at a memorial to commemorate the end of Japanese colonization, and in the speech last week on the anniversary of a movement against Japanese colonial rule he underscored his commitment, calling Japan “a partner."

Speculation that a resolution was in the works had been growing since early this year, and rumors of an impending announcement were already circulating across Japanese media over the weekend.

But Japan’s cautious optimism in welcoming the South Korean plan has highlighted Kishida’s balancing act, with the prime minister having to consider the conservative wing of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Conservative LDP lawmakers were angered by Seoul’s decision in 2015 to effectively disavow an agreement earlier that year to “finally and irreversibly” settle the issue of "comfort women," who suffered under Japan’s military brothel system before and during World War II.

While conservatives in the party had taken a strong stance against offering any concessions to the South Korean side, a more conciliatory approach surfaced among party heavyweights in recent months.

Former Prime Minister Taro Aso met with Yoon in Seoul last November, and at the end of last week former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga was appointed chairman of a cross-party group of lawmakers that work to promote ties with South Korea, demonstrating support for an improvement in relations.

“This time, Kishida was very considerate of the conservative bloc within his own party, which opposed any concessions from the Japanese side,” Okonogi said. “But at some point, they had to admit that the South Korean side was becoming increasingly collaborative and that the hard line wasn’t sustainable any longer.”

By insisting that all historical issues were settled under a 1965 agreement that normalized bilateral ties, Kishida pleased LDP conservatives while also aligning himself with long-standing party policy.

While diplomatic relations between the two countries fell to an all-time low at the end of the last decade, the worsening regional security environment and the need to promote solidarity among Western allies — driven by North Korea's military development and China's increased assertiveness — provided fertile ground for a long-awaited rapprochement.

Specifically, the weight that the current Japanese administration has placed on the improvement of the security environment — what has been dubbed “Kishida diplomacy” — played a big role, Okonogi said.

“For Kishida diplomacy, the current change in the security environment is obviously very significant,” he said. “Even if this time it was the other side taking the initiative, for the Japanese side it is a blessing that South Korea was able to handle this issue on its own.”

In 2019, Japan imposed severe export controls over high-tech components essential to making semiconductors, in what was widely seen as retaliation for South Korean Supreme Court rulings in 2018 that two Japanese companies must pay damages to former laborers — something that Tokyo has always denied.

Following yesterday's proposal, Japan’s trade ministry released an official statement declaring its intentions to hold bilateral consultations on the unresolved issue of export controls, with the aim of returning to “pre-2019 status quo.” This followed Seoul’s announcement that it would pause its dispute at the World Trade Organization.

On the South Korean side, there is deep-seated opposition toward a wartime labor agreement, with the leader of the main opposition party calling for the Japanese companies to respect the 2018 ruling.

Okonogi argues that the Yoon administration has yet to convince most of the South Korean public about the proposal, and thus will try to use diplomatic results to appeal to the electorate.

“I don't think we can expect public understanding toward the agreement to suddenly grow and Yoon’s approval ratings to rise quickly,” said Okonogi. “But, considering the opposition has other issues to deal with, such as the investigation surrounding its leader, the administration is likely to get over this issue and, with time, support for the resolution will grow.”

On the diplomatic front, on Monday it was announced that Yoon will visit Japan on March 16 and 17 to formally meet with Kishida to finalize the solution. For Yoon, it will be a prime occasion to cement South Korea's relationship with Japan ahead of a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington.

“Showing that he has normalized relationship with Japan has great significance for Yoon,” said Okonogi. “He will first visit Japan as a sort of souvenir ahead of his U.S. visit.”

As for the durability of the resolution, experts have expressed mixed views, with some in Washington taking a more positive outlook.

In an analysis published hours after the South Korean announcement, former Asia-focused U.S. officials Victor Cha and Christopher Johnstone dismissed the lingering skepticism in Japan, arguing that this time could be different.

The pair cited a “strategic imperative” to deepen ties, the two countries’ ownership of the agreement — with scarce involvement by Washington — and the political timing as the main reasons to be positive.

Others say the ball is now in Japan’s court.

“It is better not to fret,” said Kan Kimura, a professor at Kobe University’s Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies. "Short-term stability was achieved, but what happens in the long run will depend on future efforts. Japan has not done much, so it is up to them to show their (diplomatic) skills now.”