North Korea has conducted “an important final-stage test” for the development of a spy satellite that it plans to complete by next April, state-run media reported Monday, a day after it fired two ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan.
Pyongyang fired off the two medium-range ballistic missiles just days after Japan approved wide-ranging changes to its security policy, including a commitment to acquiring a so-called counterstrike capability, which would allow it to strike enemy bases and command sites — including inside North Korea.
A spokesman for the North’s National Aerospace Development Administration said the tests, mainly aimed at evaluating its satellite photography, data-transmission and ground-control capabilities, had been carried out from the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground, the official Korean Central News Agency said in a report.
The launch, which involved a vehicle carrying a mock satellite, a variety of cameras, video transmitters, control devices and batteries, was conducted “in the optimum environment simulating space” after a “high-angle launch” to 500 kilometers, the spokesman said.
The North’s space agency called the test “an important success” that signaled it had “gone through the final gateway process” and that it would finish preparations for the country’s first military reconnaissance satellite by April 2023.
A final satellite launch could come around the April 15 anniversary of the birth of leader Kim Jong Un's late grandfather and founder of the country, Kim Il Sung. That date, known as the Day of the Sun in North Korea, is one of the country's most important holidays.
Accompanying the report were two black-and-white, low-resolution images of Seoul and the port city of Incheon, apparently taken during Sunday's launch. A separate photo showed what analysts said appeared to be a medium-range Nodong missile’s first stage. The last known test of a Nodong was believed to have taken place in September 2016.
On Sunday, Japan’s Defense Ministry said both missiles had flown about 500 km, hitting maximum altitudes of around 550 km. The South Korean military, meanwhile, said the weapons tested had been medium-range missiles.
Experts said the missiles, if launched on a standard trajectory, could have delivered a payload to a range of about 1,300 km — putting a large portion of Japan within striking distance.
Japan's top government spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, told a regular news conference Monday that Tokyo believed the launches to have been tests of a reconnaissance satellite and that "there is a possibility that North Korea will continue to conduct related tests."
In February and March, North Korea launched missiles or elements of rockets that it said were test-launches of spy satellites.
The latest development was not unforeseen.
At a ruling party meeting in January last year, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un laid out a target of developing spy satellites “in the near future” as part of a laundry list of five key goals for bolstering his country's nuclear weapons program.
The North’s space launches and tests of purported satellites have in the past been roundly criticized by observers as de facto tests of ballistic missile technology banned under United Nations sanctions.
In one example, some analysts have pointed to the “control devices” that North Korea claimed to have tested in both the earlier and latest satellite launches, which they say could also be useful in the development of a post-boost vehicle that can maneuver to place multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) on different trajectories.
Such a weapon would potentially allow for a single missile to drop nuclear warheads on a broad swath of targets, complicating missile defense efforts. Because anti-ballistic missile defense systems in the U.S., as well as in South Korea and Japan, rely on a limited number of expensive interceptors — which all have just one warhead — a MIRV capability would render them less effective.
And even if the test was intended for a spy satellite, experts have raised questions over the significance of such a move.
"It remains to be seen how capable any North Korean imagery satellite would be, the frequency of launches, or how many such satellites might be maintained in orbit at any one time — all key indicators of the actual military significance of such satellites," Vann Van Diepen, a former Koreas expert with the U.S. government who now works with the 38 North project, wrote on the site earlier this year. "Regardless, the North Koreans clearly see this capability as having propaganda value and showcasing the regime’s technological prowess and effective leadership."
Despite the U.N. ban, North Korea has fired off more than 60 missiles this year in a record-breaking flurry of launches that have stoked concern in Tokyo.
On Friday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government approved what he called "a major shift" in Japan’s defense and security policies, with his Cabinet passing revisions to three key security documents that lay the foundation for Japan's diplomatic and defense policies for years to come.
North Korea’s nuclear and missile breakthroughs were a key driver for drafting the new policies, with Japan’s revised National Security Strategy taking aim at the “unprecedented frequency” and “new ways” in which Pyongyang has conducted missile launches in recent years.
"North Korea intends to bolster its nuclear capabilities both in quality and in quantity at the maximum speed,” the strategy said. “When considered together with its rapid development of missile-related technologies, North Korea's military activities pose an even more grave and imminent threat to Japan's national security than ever before.”
As part of the policy shift, Japan also formally committed to acquiring the counterstrike capability, which would allow it to employ longer-range standoff missiles, giving Tokyo a powerful deterrent in the face of the North Korean missile threat.
This is especially important, analysts say, as the North continues to make advances in its missile technology, including MIRVs, weapons that fly on irregular trajectories and those capable of being launched from platforms such as transporter erector-launchers, submarines and trains that make the missiles harder to detect.
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