The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito are gearing up to deliberate over the future of Japan's defense policy, with the results expected to be reflected in three national security documents the government will finalize by the end of the year.
The two parties disagree on several key issues: Having the ability to strike at an enemy missile base; exactly how much to increase the defense budget; and where the additional money allocated to defense should go. Hammering out such differing positions may prove to be easier said than done.
The revision effort comes at a time of increased geopolitical tensions — namely North Korea’s missile launches, China's ominous rhetoric toward Taiwan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — that are forcing Japan to undertake a thorough review of its security needs.
While the LDP and Komeito agree that the security environment is worsening, they are not on the same page over what Japan should change to best respond to that new environment.
Counterstrike capability
One area where the two parties' views diverge is the question of whether Japan should possess the capabilities to launch immediate counterattacks on enemy bases.
“We will (be able to) deter missile attacks on our country by showing that we have the ability to counterattack if they shoot at us. There is not a moment to lose” in obtaining counterstrike capability, said LDP policy chief Koichi Hagiuda at the Lower House Budget Committee session on Oct. 17.
For the LDP, counterstrike capability is crucial, as it sends a message to potential adversaries that Japan can immediately respond to any missile attack.
Komeito, however, worries that having the ability to counterattack could quickly lead to an escalation of regional hostilities. For example, if Japan fired the first shot believing an attack was imminent it could be seen as an act of aggression and not self-defense. If Japan's reaction is an act of aggression — or perceived as such — it would raise concerns that the country violated its constitution. Such a move could spark retaliation and even wider conflict.
“Even if we obtain the counterstrike capability, we must discuss how we can ensure that it will be defense-oriented, and that it will be the minimum necessary measures,” said Shigeki Sato, chairman of Komeito’s foreign and national security policy body, on an NHK program on Oct. 16.
“In order to avoid (a Japanese counterstrike) being regarded as a preemptive strike, we must rigorously confirm that the other country has actually launched an attack. A major point of contention is whether a launch can be detected early on," Sato, a key member in the defense policy discussions with the LDP, added.
Size of defense increase
Another topic the two parties disagree on concerns the financing of a new defense strategy. Many in the LDP want to increase the defense budget to 2% of GDP, which in line with what NATO countries officially aim to spend on their defense. Japan has traditionally imposed an informal cap of around 1%.
While many in his party are pushing to make this official policy, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in July that the 2% figure was being used by the government as a reference point as it looks to strengthen defense capabilities over the next five years.
If that 2% target is reached, there is the question of what the increased spending will be used for.
Some LDP officials want the money to go mostly to the Defense Ministry. Hagiuda has criticized those who propose an increased budget be used for things unrelated to the Defense Ministry, such as the Coast Guard, which operates under the land and transport ministry. Others have said the extra funds should be used for pensions for Self-Defense Forces personnel.
“It seems as if all they are thinking about are ways to increase spending as a show. But padding the budget is wrong,” Hagiuda said in the parliamentary session.
Hagiuda’s remark is different from what Komeito has in mind, which favors defense spending increases that include the coast guard, which conducts patrols around Japan's far-flung islands, including the disputed Senkaku Islands. Beijing sends its own coast guard ships — which under Chinese law is allowed to use weapons against foreign ships — near the islands on a regular basis.
“To date, defense spending has been defined as the Defense Ministry budget. However, the budget for Japan’s security is not only that ministry’s budget," said Komeito’s deputy leader Kazuo Kitagawa at a news conference in September. "There are related security budgets for other ministries, including the coast guard. It’s very important for ministries and agencies to cooperate with each other amid the severe security situation.”
Taxes, bonds and budget allocation
Finally, there is the problem of how to pay for any budget increase. The possibilities presently under discussion include raising corporate taxes, raising income taxes and issuing government bonds. At his Oct. 28th press conference, Kishida said the final amount would depend on details in the new defense policy now being discussed by the ruling parties.
LDP tax commission chair Yoichi Miyazawa has said that discussion about raising income and corporate taxes cannot be ruled out with regard to a hike in defense spending. Some senior LDP and Finance Ministry officials reportedly favor raising corporate taxes.
Kitagawa said Thursday that issuing government bonds in the short term could be the best option but a corporate tax hike is also "one of the options.”
These issues, and possibly others, could make for tough negotiations between the two parties in the days ahead. As a junior coalition partner, Komeito — known for its dovish policies and China-friendly stance— will face extreme pressure from the LDP to compromise.
But political commentator Tetsuo Suzuki says Komeito may not be able to simply give into LDP demands, due to supporter concerns.
The party is gearing itself up for next spring’s local elections, where it hopes to win races by differentiating itself as the party of peace. Many of its members — including those affiliated with Soka Gakkai, Japan’s biggest lay Buddhist group and a major supporter of Komeito — oppose revising the war-renouncing Constitution.
“Because of this, Komeito has said they will say what they have to say to the LDP and won’t compromise with the LDP on defense-related issues,” Suzuki said.
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