Concerns over China bringing Japan and Australia's relations ever closer

Japan and Australia are expected to issue a new joint security declaration largely driven by growing Chinese regional assertiveness when Prime Minister Fumio Kishida travels to Perth this weekend for talks on stepping up defense, economic and energy cooperation.

The document, which is expected to be signed by Kishida and his Australian counterpart, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, during a meeting Saturday, is set to underscore the importance of working toward achieving a "free and open Indo-Pacific."

Kishida is due to arrive in Perth on Friday for a three-day visit.

The new declaration will likely be an update of a similar document signed in 2007 by then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Australian leader John Howard that touched on several areas of security cooperation as well as on North Korea's nuclear and missile development.

The 2007 document, however, did not implicitly refer to China, which over the past 15 years has significantly expanded its regional clout, enhanced its military capabilities and is now seen as challenging the U.S.-led global order.

“It is likely that the new declaration will restate — but in more robust terms — both countries’ commitment to a rules-based regional order in the Indo-Pacific and their condemnation of actions taken to undermine the status quo by coercion or force,” said Thomas Wilkins, a Japan security expert and senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

The document, which will shape security relations between the two “special strategic partners” over the coming years, is expected to reflect many of the issues the nations have highlighted in previous meetings, such as the importance of economic security, including building national resilience against economic coercion; the resolution of disputes by peaceful means; and the cessation of destabilizing actions by other parties, he added.

Focus on regional strategic competition

“With more assertive Chinese actions in the region, including widespread use of economic coercion (including against Australia and Japan) and military pressure on Japan and Taiwan, the 2007 Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation has long been due for an update to reflect pressing concerns such as economic security issues, increasing Chinese penetration of the Pacific island nations and its more belligerent stance toward Taiwan,” Wilkins said.

The overall focus is therefore likely to be on regional strategic competition, with a stronger focus on closer defense cooperation and intelligence-sharing, and less emphasis on nontraditional threats such as terrorism and border security.

“Naturally, the Russian war in Ukraine has created a sense of alarming parallels in the Indo-Pacific, apparently creating a permissive environment for the use of force in international affairs once more,” Wilkins said. “With so many historical and territorial disputes in the Indo-Pacific region, Australia and Japan feel the need to be better prepared to prevent or respond to any potential outbreak of conflict closer to home.”

Lauren Richardson, an expert in international relations and director of the Japan Institute at the Australian National University, agreed, noting that the declaration will present another step forward — even if only incremental — in the institutionalization of the defense and security relationship.

According to analysts, tensions across the Taiwan Strait will probably also be mentioned in the document, as both countries have explicitly referred to this in other statements. North Korea’s recent flurry of missile tests will ensure that it is also afforded a prominent place in the new declaration.

The document will also likely commit Tokyo and Canberra to deepening technological collaboration in the areas of defense and security as well as in quantum computing and artificial intelligence. It will also likely signal the importance of cooperation forums such as “the Quad,” a four-way grouping that also includes the U.S. and India, the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue with the United States and new initiatives such as the Partners for the Blue Pacific, which is designed to counter China’s growing clout among Pacific island nations.

Deepening defense ties

The new joint security declaration is the latest in a series of measures that have brought Japan and Australia closer together in recent years.

In January, the two sides signed a defense pact that will allow their militaries to train on each other’s territories. Once ratified by legislators in both countries, the Reciprocal Access Agreement will be Japan’s first accord covering a foreign military presence on its territory since the 1960 Status of Forces Agreement with the United States. During this weekend’s meeting, Kishida and Albanese are expected to consider the next steps to implement that agreement.

The two countries, which often highlight the importance of their respective alliances with the United States, are also increasing the complexity and sophistication of military exercises, both bilaterally as well as with other partner countries.

A recent display of this enhanced cooperation took place in the latest iteration of the Nichi Gou Trident exercise last November, during which the Self-Defense Forces escorted a non-U.S. military asset for the first time.

The Defense Ministry in Tokyo said at the time the move demonstrated the high level of interoperability between the two countries’ navies, while also indicating how “much closer collaboration” had become possible between the two countries.

Due to its pacifist Constitution, Japan had lacked the legal foundation to allow the SDF to help defend partners until recent years, but this was made possible through legislation and new guidelines finalized in 2015, as well as revisions to the law covering the SDF, which enables it to protect weapons and other equipment of certain foreign forces.

Concerns over U.S. power decline

The security policies of Tokyo and Canberra are aligned with Washington’s “integrated deterrence” strategy, a concept that seeks to combine the efforts of the U.S. and its allies and leverage technological advantages.

Washington has long encouraged closer ties between its allies as part of its own design to create a “networked” security architecture in the region.

This is one of the reasons why Australia entered the AUKUS security partnership with the U.S. and the U.K. Among other things, the pact is part of efforts by Canberra to build at least eight conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines that will enable it to project military power far beyond its waters, in anticipation of a contingency involving China. The move is also aimed at signaling to Beijing that Canberra is willing to play a key role in the joint deterrence posture led by Washington.

Japan and Australia, both of which are highly dependent on the U.S. military presence in the region for their own national security, are deeply concerned with the shifting balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region, chiefly brought about by the rise of China.

“The two countries have similar regional outlooks, and more specifically, closely aligned perceptions of regional threats and how such threats should be countered,” Richardson said.

Having relied upon the U.S. as a security guarantor — including through its nuclear deterrent — and the liberal international order Washington put in place during the Cold War and beyond, both countries fear any decline in American power or commitment to the Indo-Pacific region.

“They both realize that they must do more themselves and alongside the U.S. to maintain the regional order against any challenge or disruptive actor,” said Wilkins. “Peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region are now viewed as being more fragile than before.”

Against this backdrop, Australia and Japan, which share common values and interests, seek to reinforce their position by cooperating more closely in the face of such risks, he added.

Tokyo already considers Canberra a "semi-ally," but a formal bilateral security alliance is unlikely to be announced anytime soon, particularly due to Japan’s constraints on the use of force.

That said, Wilkins noted that the existing special strategic partnership between the two countries might already constitute a de facto “virtual alliance” — particularly when placed into the U.S.-alliance system context and triangulated through the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue.

Energy supplies and climate change

Meanwhile, Kishida’s trip to Australia, the first by a Japanese prime minister since 2018, also has an economic component, with Albanese saying in a statement that as Australia seeks to become a clean energy superpower, it “will remain a steady and reliable supplier of energy to Japan, including for new energy sources like hydrogen."

Australia is a major supplier of food, minerals and energy to Japan, with the former providing about a third of its liquefied natural gas imports. However, global supply chains have been disrupted following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, prompting the two leaders to look for ways to enhance economic security and secure stable supplies of Australian LNG, rare earths and other resources to Japan.

According to the Australian government, Kishida and Albanese will also discuss ways to address the climate crisis and support a regional transition to net zero emissions, including by seizing opportunities to scale up investment in clean energy technologies and supply chains.