As Chinese President Xi Jinping marches toward his second decade in power, predictions abound that he’ll ease policies that have sealed China’s borders, battered stocks and blown up the dollar-bond market. There’s little sign any such shift is in the works.
The optimism hinges on expectations Xi will usher in a more benign investing environment after the twice-a-decade Communist Party congress slated to start Oct. 16. The idea is policymakers will take bolder steps to shore up the economy once Xi locks in a precedent-breaking third term and packs key posts with loyalists.
Wall Street banks are looking for stronger coordination across departments that set policy, making it easier to align investment. Some predict Xi will start to pivot away from his "COVID zero" orthodoxy. Others say the government will do more to ensure the property-market crisis doesn’t threaten the banking system.