Senior members of the Liberal Democratic Party faction once led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have agreed to a collective leadership structure for the group, at least for now, despite earlier reports that LDP finance committee Chairman Ryu Shionoya would soon head the faction, the party's largest.
But with the powerful Abe no longer in charge following his assassination and no clear successor waiting in the wings, the caucus, which had 93 members going into the July 10 Upper House election, is experiencing internal dissent. Many believe it could lose members to rival groups, or even splinter it into new, smaller factions.
On Tuesday, a group of about 20 senior members agreed that things would remain the same for the time being and that no successor to Abe would be appointed until after his state funeral, which is slated to take place Sept. 27. Shionoya, a 10-term Lower House member and former education minister, and Hakubun Shimomura will remain deputy leaders.
Officially known as the Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyukai, the caucus will remain informally known as "the Abe faction" for the time being.
Former LDP policy chief Shimomura, who was a close aide to Abe, almost ran for LDP president in September, but decided against it following pressure from Yoshihide Suga, the outgoing prime minister and party leader.
In the end, the Abe faction did not field a candidate in the presidential election, as Abe backed the unaffiliated Sanae Takaichi, who lost to Fumio Kishida.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Shionoya said it was important for the caucus to unite and continue Abe’s legacy.
“So, for the moment, at least until the state funeral for Abe takes place, we’ll proceed with the current leadership structure,” Shionoya said.
Tuesday’s decision will be formally endorsed by the entire faction at a meeting on Thursday. It comes after several days of media reports that Shionoya, Shimomura and five other senior leaders were preparing to lead the group, with Shionoya the front-runner.
In addition to Shimomura, other faction executives named in the reports were LDP Secretary-General of the Upper House caucus Hiroshige Seko, former economic revitalization minister Yasutoshi Nishimura and LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chair Tsuyoshi Takagi.
Current Cabinet ministers usually aren’t involved in faction management, but Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and trade minister Koichi Hagiuda are also key members.
The reports about Shionoya heading the group drew criticism within the faction, leading to Tuesday’s compromise, but the exact roles of other senior leaders under Shionoya and Shimomura were unclear.
Any effort to replace Abe with a new faction leader, however, faces the challenge of getting the approval of all members, said political journalist Tetsuo Suzuki — especially from younger members such as LDP Executive Council Chair Tatsuo Fukuda.
Last September, Fukuda formed a group of about 90 younger LDP members — including those from other caucuses and those who are unaffiliated — to press for party reforms. His influence among younger Abe faction members is said to be strong, and keeping Fukuda and younger members from bolting will be a top priority for the senior membership — one that will be especially challenging in a group leadership situation.
“The Abe faction has members with different ideas and personalities. Because Abe was a strong leader, he was able to keep these disparate members together,” Suzuki said. "The collective leadership structure that includes the faction’s senior members is a temporary measure, though. It’s not the best choice, but a desperate measure to keep things going."
Finding a replacement for Abe will not be easy. Competition to head the faction among the senior leaders is likely to be fierce, and reaching an agreement on a single leader among all its members will take time. Suzuki sees a number of possible new heads, including Hagiuda, Nishimura and, if he is replaced as chief Cabinet secretary, Matsuno.
“But we are not there yet. If one of them becomes the leader now, they won’t be able to keep the faction together.”
Developments within the Abe faction are also being closely watched by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who heads his own group.
The prime minister is expected to reshuffle his Cabinet in August or September. Appointments to Cabinet posts or changes in the senior party leadership often take into account factional strength, and Kishida, while needing to please his own caucus members, cannot afford to ignore the power of those who belong to the Abe faction.
“There is some talk in political circles that Hagiuda will be made (LDP) secretary-general, or that Matsuno could be replaced as chief Cabinet secretary," Suzuki said. "But there are a lot of decisions to be made, all of which are likely to give Kishida a headache."
Information from Jiji added
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