With the Upper House election on July 10 now just over a week away, the latest polls forecast the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to pick up three times as many seats as their nearest rivals — signaling little jeopardy for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the buildup to the vote.
However, Kishida is still only nine months into his tenure. The vote is therefore more significant than it might seem at first glance, because it offers the electorate their first proper chance to pass judgment on his nascent administration.
With most observers also anticipating a convincing coalition victory, it is the margin of that victory that emerges as the most telling variable — not just in terms of Kishida’s longevity and his ability to govern unchallenged, but from the perspective of various short- and long-term policy concerns critical to the nation’s future.
The LDP-Komeito coalition is projected to comfortably pick up the 56 seats needed to retain the majority it secured in the last Upper House election in 2019, with most pre-election polling predicting an increase to 60 seats or more. Any improvement on the 2019 result, it is felt, will then increase Kishida’s mandate within his own party and his control over the political direction of the country.
Political process
Japan’s political system consists of two principal administrative bodies: the Lower and Upper houses of parliament.
The Upper House — or House of Councilors — initially functioned as a semi-hereditary chamber modeled on the U.K’s House of Lords. But with the abolition of the nation’s aristocracy in the immediate postwar period, it has evolved into an institution more closely resembling the U.S. Senate.
Like the U.S. Senate, Japan’s Upper House is made up of members who serve over staggered terms of six years, with half of the 248 seats in the house coming up for election every three years.
But unlike the Senate, the Upper House represents the weaker of the two sides of the two chamber system, being largely subordinate to the Lower House — or House of Representatives — which is generally responsible for introducing bills to parliament, although the approval of both houses is typically necessary for a bill to be passed into law.
On the most nationally pressing issues — such as the passing of the budget and the appointment of a new prime minister — the Lower House can push to overturn Upper House opposition by securing a simple majority vote.
Where the Senate comprises two lawmakers representing each of the 50 states for a total of 100 senators, the Upper House aims at more proportional representation by weighting the number of members for each of Japan’s 45 prefectures by population — a system that takes into account urbanization and the rapid depopulation of rural areas such as the Tottori-Shimane and Tokushima-Kochi districts, which are both the result of mergers.
Of the 124 seats up for grabs at this year’s Upper House election, 74 are in electoral districts — meaning that voters cast their ballot for their single favorite candidate in their prefecture.
The remaining 50 seats will be decided by the proportional representation system, whereby voters cast a ballot for either their favorite candidate or their favored party in a nationwide constituency. The party itself — on securing a certain number of seats — then assigns candidates according to the number of votes they received from the individual side of the ballot.
Upper House significance
The Upper House derives its power principally as a counterweight to the Lower House. It carries equal weight on issues related to the Constitution, for instance, as a two-thirds majority — or 166 of 248 total seats — is needed in the Upper House for any proposed amendment to proceed to a public vote.
Four Japanese political parties — the LDP, Komeito, Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) — are supportive of constitutional reforms aimed at amending Article 9, pacifist Japan’s so-called “peace clause,” and the nation's ability to respond to public health crises and disasters.
The parties currently hold a two-thirds majority in the Lower House. During this election, they would need to secure 82 of 125 contested seats in order to also secure a similar majority in the Upper House — something that recent polls suggest could be in the cards.
Elsewhere, in cases where the Upper House is subordinate to the Lower House, it can still exert influence via its ability to delay legislation.
Other than for the most pressing national issues, for most bills to pass, only a two-thirds Lower House vote can override Upper House opposition. However, Upper House opposition can lead to a bill being passed back to the Lower House for a cycle of subsequent votes. If the bill fails to pass both houses by the end of the parliamentary session, it can then become subject to significant delays — or even expire.
Therefore, in order to keep the nation’s political machinery turning, there is a general desire to avoid such situations — and members of the leading party will often seek to negotiate with opposition figures on a compromise that will allow a bill to pass through both houses.
The situation is sometimes complicated, however, by what is known as nejire, or a twisted parliament.
In this scenario, the leading party or coalition — currently the LDP alongside junior partner Komeito — will control a majority in the Lower House. But the opposition, controlling a majority in the Upper House, will wield the authority to vote down their proposals, thereby thwarting efforts to introduce new legislation.
What’s at stake for Kishida?
The prime minister, elected head of the LDP in October, got off to a rocky start. Observers felt that his initial hesitancy on certain matters and a reputation for indecisiveness could lead to issues further down the road, with some projecting the possibility of a twisted parliament at this month's vote.
However, aside from a dip related to cost-of-living issues in recent weeks, the prime minister’s approval rating has remained consistently high throughout the first nine months of his tenure.
Translating that approval into votes at the polls would afford Kishida greater control over policy — including the pursuit of his much-touted “new capitalism” initiatives — at least until the next general election in two year's time.
Failure to improve on the party’s 2019 showing, and his position could suddenly appear far less secure.
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