The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates in July for the first time in 11 years and the U.S. Federal Reserve has been on an interest rate hike campaign since March, causing the yen to fall to a 20-year low.

So when will the Bank of Japan follow suit?

Not anytime soon, economists say.

“We will tenaciously continue the strong monetary easing which will in turn support our nation’s economy and aim for a sustainable and stable 2% inflation target,” BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said during an Upper House committee session on Tuesday.

Kuroda’s remark once again highlighted a widening gap between Japan’s dovish monetary policy and the moves by other central banks to intervene in a bid to fend off inflation.

The BOJ won’t change its stance unless the currency rate reaches a level — possibly in the ¥140 range — where it becomes the primary cause of soaring import costs, said Toru Suehiro, a senior economist at Daiwa Securities.

At present, the main reason behind rising import costs is commodity price hikes, not the yen. According to an estimate by Suehiro, only about 35% of the total import cost rise in April can be attributed to the weak currency.

The government and the BOJ have explained that rising prices of goods is mainly due to soaring commodity prices stemming from the coronavirus pandemic and heightened geopolitical tensions.

But if the rate slumps to the ¥140 level, it is estimated that about half of the total increase in import costs would come from the currency rate, Suehiro said.

“If the weak yen becomes the main factor, the government and the BOJ will have to change their logic,” he said.

Suehiro said it’s likely that the BOJ will take some action to intervene, adding that it may take a tougher line in public comments as the rate approaches the ¥140 zone.

On Friday, the Finance Ministry, the Financial Services Agency and the BOJ issued a joint statement expressing concern over the fast pace of the weakening yen.

“In the recent foreign exchange market, the yen is falling rapidly and we are concerned,” the statement said.

A recent Bloomberg survey also found that 44 of 45 analysts believe the BOJ will not make any policy changes at its scheduled Policy Board meetings next week.

According to the survey, only 26% of respondents answered that the BOJ will likely or very likely make some moves this year to counter the weak yen or inflation.

The pace of the yen’s fall slowed last month after breaching the ¥130 mark for the first time in 20 years in late April.

But it began to move rapidly again this week, hitting a fresh 20-year low on Wednesday when it tumbled to the ¥134 mark, after Kuroda repeated this week that the BOJ will maintain its ultraloose monetary policy.

Economists also said that the BOJ is not expected to move to stop the weakening yen unless the government requests it to do so.

The government, for its part, is unlikely to pressure the BOJ anytime soon, as it needs the central bank to continue its policy to maintain low interest rates for a longer period to hold down borrowing costs for its budgets.

The government’s annual economic policy guideline, which was approved by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Cabinet on Tuesday, states that the government expects the BOJ to commit to achieving its 2% inflation target “in a stable and sustainable manner,” implying that the BOJ will continue its monetary easing for the time being.

“The BOJ effectively received an endorsement from the government that it doesn’t need to make a move,” Suehiro said.

In an effort to curb the rise of benchmark yields, the BOJ has said that it will purchase unlimited amounts of 10-year Japanese government bonds at a fixed rate of 0.25% every business day.

If the BOJ were to raise interest rates to narrow differentials between Japan and the U.S. to put more buying pressure on the yen, it would push up borrowing costs for the Japanese government, which is already shouldering a snowballing amount of public debt.

“Some people might think that it would not really damage the economy even if the BOJ raises interest rates for a bit, so it should step in to stop the weak yen trend (through a rate hike),” said Shinichiro Kobayashi, principal economist at Mitsubishi UFJ & Research Consulting.

“But it will aggravate Japan’s fiscal condition, so I think the government wants to avoid it for now.”