Local opposition and regulations slow Japan's return to nuclear

With the conflict in Ukraine extending into a fourth month, the knock-on effects of an international embargo on Russian energy exports are being felt across the globe. In Japan, where energy security is of increasing concern, one such effect is a shifting of the sands surrounding the nation’s nuclear power debate.

The public has been largely opposed to nuclear power since March 2011, when a devastating earthquake and tsunami off Japan’s northeast coast led to one of the worst nuclear disasters the world has seen. However, recent polls suggest that public attitudes may be changing as the global energy crunch pushes consumer prices skyward.

One poll conducted by the Mainichi Shimbun on Saturday found that 47% of respondents supported the restart of dormant nuclear reactors, with 30% against the move. Those figures contrast with a similar Mainichi poll carried out in February 2018 when 32% of respondents supported a restart, with 48% against it.

Once the source of around a quarter of the nation’s total energy mix, nuclear power currently contributes 4% of the electricity supply. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, for one, has been forthright in expressing his desire for a return to Japan’s former nuclear energy capabilities.

He told a London audience during a recent visit to the U.K. that Japan “will utilize nuclear reactors with safety assurances to contribute to worldwide reduction of dependence on Russian energy.” He then claimed that “restarting just one existing nuclear reactor would have the same effect as supplying 1 million tons of new liquid natural gas (LNG) per year to the global market.”

LNG supply is of particular concern to Japan, where it contributes to 37% of the nation’s electricity. Russia’s Sakhalin-2 oil and gas extraction project provides around 8% of Japan’s total LNG imports.

Alongside the Sakhalin-1 project, from which it imports roughly 1.5% of its oil, there is now growing international pressure for Japan to walk away from these Russian contracts in a show of solidarity with other Group of Seven countries and Big Oil corporations such as BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil, all of whom have announced their intention to withdraw.

There are currently few immediate alternative LNG suppliers with the capacity and willingness to make up Japan’s shortfall in the absence of Russian gas. Therefore, should Russian actions in Ukraine continue to escalate, forcing the government to definitively sever all ties with the increasingly isolated nation, experts anticipate widespread disruption to Japan’s already stretched electricity grid.

For Lower House lawmaker Masatoshi Akimoto, a vocal proponent of renewable energy and one of the lone anti-nuclear voices inside the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the need to offset Russia-related price rises could reach such a state of urgency that a short-term increase in nuclear power use becomes necessary.

“We should make use of all our assets in order to get through the current crisis,” he said. “That may include the temporary use of nuclear power. However, this is not, I believe, an effective long-term strategy. Looking ahead to 2030 or 2050, we need to refocus our attention on the transition to renewable energy sources.”

Any desire, either short or long term, to return to nuclear power is complicated by regulatory changes introduced in 2013 as a response to the March 2011 triple meltdown. In order to restart, plants must now meet the guidelines and seek approval from the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA).

Although it is not a legal requirement, plants must also in practice seek the consent of local governments. While there is some support from residents of municipalities that host nuclear power plants, who feel that a restart of reactors would bring jobs and a boost to the economy, deep rooted safety concerns and public distrust remain a major stumbling block.

Of the nation's 60 reactors, 10 have restarted and seven have been approved for restart, while 10 are under review based on the new standards. Twenty four are in the process of being decommissioned, and a further nine have not asked for a review.

The process of obtaining both NRA and local consent, particularly when the duration of anti-nuclear power lawsuits brought by residents are taken into account, has been shown to regularly last between five and 10 years.

If the government were to rapidly accelerate the restart of reactors in response to the war in Ukraine and rising energy prices, it would mean bypassing its own nuclear power regulations, something that experts consider a difficult step to take.

“While the prime minister made comments supporting a return to nuclear power, it is not Kishida’s words alone that will turn on the reactors,” said Yuriy Humber, CEO of research company Yuri Group. “Still, when he makes such remarks, it does send a signal to local governments and mayors, who have the final say, that the central government thinks it necessary to utilize nuclear energy.

"Kishida is also the first prime minister in a decade to suggest that the current nuclear regulatory framework should be reviewed.”

In Japan, Humber added, time is needed for any major transition. Therefore, be it a return to mass use of nuclear power or a greater concentration on renewable energy sources such as offshore wind, the process will be gradual.

“It is unlikely at this point that the government will call for a massive change to the energy policies unveiled in recent years,” he said.