How Russia quietly built up its military presence in Asia

The invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns across East Asia about future Russian military activity.

While Tokyo may think first about the Sea of Okhotsk and four disputed islands off Hokkaido that are occupied by Russia and claimed by Japan, the governments of Japan and its neighbors are now pondering what further cooperation between Russia and China could mean for the region. For much of the 20th century, Russia’s military presence in the Far East was minor compared to its Europe-facing flank. But that has changed over the past few years.

Conventional and nuclear forces

The Japanese Defense Ministry’s 2021 White Paper notes that Russian land, sea, and air defense forces in the Far East were placed under the control of the Eastern Military District’s commander in 2010, and that the total presence of Russian forces is less than what it was during the height of the Cold War. Yet the country's military presence includes not only conventional forces but also nuclear-armed forces. Russian military has modernized in recent years, deploying the latest technology in and around Japan and Northeast Asia.

Russian nuclear forces in the Far East include a Delta III-class submarine and two newer Borei-class submarines, all equipped with ballistic missiles. The three submarines are deployed in and around the Sea of Okhotsk, which extends to the coast of northern Hokkaido. There are also approximately 30 Tu-95 long-range bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons stationed at Ukrainka air base in the Russian district of Amur Oblast, which lies on the country's border with China. There are additional plans, the Defense Ministry noted, to deploy two more Borei-class submarines to the region.

Ground forces include a total of 80,000 personnel and a marine brigade that has the ability to conduct amphibious operations. The ground forces have received new surface-to-surface, surface-to-ship, and surface-to-air missile systems. These include the Iskander, a land-based, mobile-launched missile with a range of about 500 kilometers, and the Bal and Bastion land-based missile systems that target ships. The former system can hit targets 130 kilometers away, while the latter is accurate against ships from 300 kilometers.

The Russian navy in the Pacific region is based at Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, which lies on the Kamchatka peninsula. There are about 260 ships total, including 20 major surface ships and about 20 submarines. The most powerful surface ships include a new frigate that carries Kalibr class cruise missiles which have a maximum range of 1,500 kilometers.

Russian planes in the region include about 320 combat aircraft belonging to both its aerospace force and its navy. These include Su-35 fighter jets and Su-34 fighter-bombers.

There are land forces stationed on Kunashiri and Etorofu, the two largest islands under dispute by Japan. The number of troops on all four islands, which Japan calls the Northern Territories, is believed to be around 3,500, with the the main force, the 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division, headquartered at Seseki Garrison on Iturup, known in Japan as Etorofu.

Etorofu is also the site of two airports: Tennei (Burevestnik in Russian) and Yasniy, where military personnel and equipment are stationed. There are three Su-35 fighter jets stationed at Yasniy, but it currently does not have the capacity to handle more jets. There is no large naval base on the disputed islands.

Increasing activity and modern weaponry

Over the past few years, Russian activity in the Far East has been generally on the rise, including more patrols and training exercises. Outdated weapons have also been replaced.

Bal and Bastion anti-ship missiles were deployed to Kunashir, known in Japan as Kunashiri, and Etorofu in November 2016, and Russia is strengthening its forces on a small volcanic island called Matua, which is in the Kuril Island chain north of the disputed islands. There is an old airstrip there that Russia plans to use as a base for helicopters, light military aircraft and possibly some Russian ships, further strengthening Moscow’s presence in the Sea of Okhotsk. By December 2021, Matua was also hosting Bastion missiles.

In 2018, the Russian Defense Ministry announced a plan to add 70 new ships to its Pacific Fleet by 2027. In September the same year, 28 Russian naval vessels, including a guided missile cruiser, passed through the Soya Strait, which separates Sakhalin from the far northwestern tip of Hokkaido. It was the largest number of Russian military vessels to pass through the strait since the end of the Cold War.

2018 also saw Russia beefing up its forces on the disputed islands. In January, Yasniy Airport was opened up to joint military-civilian flights. Su-35 fighters were stationed there and ground force units were confirmed to be using the latest battle tank, the T-72B3. In addition, a medium-range unmanned reconnaissance vehicle has been stationed at the airport since 2015.

In September 2018, Russia conducted its largest military exercise in Siberia and the Far East since the end of the Cold War. “Vostok 2018,” as it was known, involved 297,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft, 80 vessels and 36 tanks, as well as Chinese and Mongolian forces who participated in the exercise for the first time.

In December 2020, Russia reported that S-300V4 surface-to-air missiles had been deployed on Etorofu and Kunashiri, which lies just 16 kilometers off the eastern coast of Hokkaido. These missiles have a maximum firing range of about 400 kilometers.

Russian military exercises to repel landing forces in the disputed islands have repeatedly taken place.

As of last month, the Self-Defense Forces had scrambled 246 times against Russian jets and aircraft in and around Japan in the 2021 fiscal year, which ends this month, second only to the number of scrambles against Chinese forces (688). On March 2, a Russian helicopter entered Japanese air space over Nemuro, at the eastern edge of Hokkaido.

Japan to revise its Russia defense strategy?

Hokkaido is home to both Ground Self-Defense Force and Air Self-Defense Force units, whose mission is to prevent an invasion of the island. The Maritime Self-Defense Force has bases at Yoichi, Hakodate, and a coast observation base at Wakkanai, almost within sight of Sakhalin. The closest Self-Defense Force base to the disputed islands is the GSDF base at Camp Shibetsu in eastern Hokkaido, home to a coastal observation unit. Since the end of the Cold War, however, Japan has transferred forces previously based in Hokkaido to southern areas closer to China and North Korea.

How Japan might change its defense posture toward Russia following its invasion of Ukraine remains uncertain. At a March 1 news conference, Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said the government would review the National Security Strategy, its long term foreign and security policy roadmap, by the end of this year in light of the Ukraine invasion. But he did suggest revising the current strategy, which considers the Japan-Russia relationship a "partnership," and changing it to something else, indicating a transition to something more akin to a national security challenge.

Meanwhile, Japan’s relations with Russia continue to worsen. On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin released a list of unfriendly countries that had imposed sanctions on Russia, and Japan — along with the United States, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the European Union, among others — was on the list.