The U.S. Federal Reserve and some of its major central-banking peers will press ahead with raising interest rates this month, money markets suggest, even as a war on Europe's eastern flank complicates the picture for inflation and economic growth.
The situation is fluid, with rate futures and bond prices whipsawed by conflicting impulses and no indication of which could gain the upper hand: a war that threatens to undercut a global economic recovery, or the inflation unleashed by an oil price surge that will be hard for central bankers to overlook.
Still, expectations of big rate-hike bets have fallen by the wayside, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and sanctions imposed on it by Western powers.