The rise in the cost of living in Tokyo matched its fastest pace in the last two years in February, driven by higher energy prices that could climb further in the coming months following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Excluding fresh food, consumer prices in the capital increased 0.5% from a year earlier as utility bills soared, the internal affairs ministry said Friday. That outpaced a 0.4% gain expected by economists.

Even if the faster pace is reflected at the national level, price growth will remain far behind the global trend and the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

Still, the stronger-than-expected price rises suggest Japan’s inflation pulse may be quickening more than expected. That could fuel speculation that the BOJ might consider adjusting policy amid a wave of hawkish moves by its global peers in response to accelerating inflation.

A sharper jump in the consumer price index is also widely expected in April when slashed phone bill charges from last year start to drop out of the calculations.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is also likely to keep oil prices elevated or push them up further.

"The Russia-Ukraine situation makes it more likely that prices will stay high even in the latter half of this year and that will fuel speculation over possible BOJ policy adjustments,” said Kazuma Maeda, an economist at Barclays Securities.

The central bank would likely be reluctant to make steps toward normalizing policy given the lack of solid wage growth, he added.

"But if the government starts to put pressure on the BOJ as prices rise, the bank may have to make some kind of adjustment,” he said.

"Higher costs of imported goods such as food and energy, further fueled by a weaker yen, are likely to buoy consumer prices,” said Yuki Masujima, economist at Bloomberg Economics. "For consumers, rising prices of gasoline and food are bad news — and could hit sentiment and damp spending.”

The February data showed energy costs in the capital climbed 24% for the biggest increase since 1981, contributing 1.06 percentage point to overall prices. The gain once again showed that climbing oil markets and their impact on electricity bills have been the driving force behind Japan’s core inflation numbers.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Friday he will ramp up support for those affected by the surge in oil prices. The government is already subsidizing gas stations to cap rising gasoline prices.

Economists see the rising energy prices weighing on consumer spending elsewhere in the economy. Combined with the impact of restrictions on activity amid the omicron virus wave, that is increasing the risks of the economy contracting this quarter.

Squeezed household budgets could fuel voter dissatisfaction ahead of a national election this summer that Kishida hopes will shore up support for his leadership.

"The likelihood is rising that Kishida will put together an economic stimulus package before the summer election,” Maeda said.

Even without the commodity factor, Japan’s inflation is projected to accelerate from April on the phone factor. Nationally, phone charges that have dropped by more than half have been pushing down the overall inflation index by around 1.5 percentage point in recent months.

BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated Thursday that the current level of inflation doesn’t require the bank to consider making any policy adjustments. The governor underscored that stance with actions last week when the BOJ intervened in the bond market to keep yields low for the first time since 2018.

Keeping 10-year yields near its zero target is part of the bank’s measures to stimulate the economy and prices.

In a sign of the growing cost pressures on companies, Yaokin Co., producer of a popular ¥10 ($0.09) snack for children, announced late last month it would raise its price tag to ¥12 for the first increase in 42 years.