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Thailand has slightly hardened its language on Myanmar by saying it is “gravely concerned” about escalating bloodshed since a Feb. 1 coup, but close military ties and fears of a flood of refugees mean it is unlikely to go further, analysts say.

That leaves Thailand out of step with some countries of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as they seek to ramp up pressure on the junta, but could also position it as a possible mediator.

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