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‘A black eye’: Why U.S. political polling missed the mark. Again.

Voters cast their ballots in Columbus, Ohio, on Nov. 3. This year’s misleading polls had real-world effects for both political parties in the U.S. Presidential and Congressional races. | MADDIE MCGARVEY / THE NEW YORK TIMES

By David Leonhardt
The New York Times

Nov 13, 2020

U.S. Sen. Susan Collins did not lead in a single publicly released poll during the final four months of her re-election campaign in Maine. But Collins, a Republican, won the election comfortably.

Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, trailed in almost every poll conducted in his race. He won, too.

And most polls underestimated President Donald Trump’s strength, in Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Texas, Wisconsin and elsewhere. Instead of winning a landslide, as the polls suggested, Joe Biden beat Trump by less than 2 percentage points in the states that decided the election.

‘A black eye’: Why U.S. political polling missed the mark. Again.

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