• The Washington Post


When two University of Tokyo seismologists recently released a study forecasting that a major earthquake would strike the capital and its 13 million inhabitants sometime in the next four years, they made front-page headlines.

But their forecast also came with a backlash, as other researchers studying earthquakes bristled at the forecast, saying such predictions shouldn’t be attempted in the first place because they’re more likely wrong than right, at least based on Japan’s history.

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