Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., Japan's largest drugmaker, forecast its biggest jump in full-year profit in six years on sales of the best-selling Actos diabetes pill.
Net income will rise 18 percent to ¥395 billion in the year ending March 31, from ¥335.8 billion a year earlier, the Osaka-based company said Monday. Actos overtook GlaxoSmithKline PLC's Avandia as the world's top-selling diabetes medicine after the Glaxo drug was linked in a May 21 report to a higher heart attack risk.
The profit estimate, which exceeds the 13 percent Takeda forecast on May 10, underscores the company's reliance on Actos. The drugmaker has few products in its pipeline to replace Actos when it faces generic competition in early 2011. Takeda fell the most in 20 years on Oct. 30 after announcing a delay in one of four drugs it has in the final stages of patient studies.
"Takeda has been benefiting since May, thanks to Avandia," said Hiroshi Tanaka, a pharmaceuticals analyst at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo, before Monday's announcement by Takeda. "The question is: How can Takeda make up for lost sales once the Actos patent expires?"
The Japanese drugmaker was expected to forecast net income of ¥409.3 billion for the current year, according to the average estimate of 18 analysts compiled by Bloomberg data. Profit surged 60 percent in the year that ended in March 2002.
Profit climbed 37 percent to ¥218 billion, or ¥256 a share, in the six months to Sept. 30, from ¥159.1 billion, or ¥181, in the same period a year earlier, Takeda reported Monday. Revenue rose 10 percent to ¥708.5 billion, from ¥642.4 billion.