The United States should try to improve relations with China under the new security environment following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and that will require "careful and realistic diplomatic management on many fronts," an American expert on East Asia told a recent symposium in Tokyo.
Bates Gill, senior fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, said fundamental differences between Washington and Beijing may temporarily be shelved in the fight against terrorism, but they will resurface in the long run.
"But that does not mean we should give up hope," Gill told the Brookings Institution-Keizai Koho Center Regional Forum held Oct. 10. "We should do all we can" to stabilize bilateral ties.
The American perception of China as a security threat has been downgraded following the terrorist attacks. Also, the new security environment creates potential for some near-term security-related cooperation between the U.S. and China, he said.
However, fundamental differences between the two countries are likely to resurface over the medium to longer term -- in some cases precisely because of what is taking place in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, Gill warned.
The U.S. move to strengthen its alliance with Japan is likely to put China on alert, and a greater U.S. security presence in Central Asia as well as improved relations with Pakistan could also raise concerns in Beijing, he pointed out.
To avoid undermining its ties with Beijing, Washington should aim to gain Chinese support in the United Nations Security Council through continued consultation and coordination as it expands its counterterrorism effort.Also, the U.S. should "do more to encourage and appreciate" the contributions made unilaterally by China to the antiterrorism efforts, such as the tightening of security at its borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan, he said.
Gill also urged Washington to be cautious in the use of American force not only in Central Asia, China's backyard, but also in its front, Japan, as it tries to step up Japan-U.S. cooperation in the counterterrorism operation. That, he added, should provide an opportunity for the U.S. and Japan to improve coordination on policy toward China.
Yoichi Funabashi, chief diplomatic correspondent and columnist for the Asahi Shimbun newspaper, discussed Japan's response to the latest crisis and how it was different from the way the nation responded to the Persian Gulf War a decade ago.
"The Japanese people exhibited a tremendous spirit of solidarity with Americans in various forms. This is clearly different from the experience we went through 10 years ago," Funabashi said. The nation could not remain a mere bystander since many Japanese were among the victims of the terrorist attacks, he added.
The crisis posed a serious challenge to the bilateral security alliance, he said. "This may be a blessing in disguise. The U.S.-Japan relationship had difficulty redefining itself, and some called it an 'alliance adrift.' . . . Cooperation (in dealing with) common, transnational threats from terrorist groups may be the ideal (context) for Japan and the U.S. to try to redefine their alliance."
Unlike in the runup to the Gulf War, the government took quick and decisive action, submitting a bill to the Diet within weeks of the attack to enable the Self-Defense Forces to provide logistic support to the U.S. operation against those behind the terrorism.
But there are some things that do not seem to change, he said. "The first instinct for the government is to try to 'please the Americans,' partly because it feared that if Japan fails to meet U.S. expectations, it could seriously damage the Japan-U.S. alliance," he said.
While the public is more forthcoming than before in supporting Japan's manpower -- rather than merely financial -- contribution to the fight against terrorism, "many people still feel ambivalent about Japan's commitment" toward the U.S.-led military operations. The current broad support for the government policy may change if large numbers of civilian deaths result from the strikes on Afghanistan, Funabashi said.
Other bilateral relations in East Asia were also discussed at the symposium.
Morton Abramowitz, chairman of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, noted that South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's "sunshine policy" toward North Korea in recent years has reduced tensions on the Korean Peninsula, which he said is "of enormous importance" as the U.S. embarks on the military operations in its fight against terrorism.
Abramowitz also pointed to the "enormous interactions between China and Taiwan," and went on to predict there may be "significant political progress between the two over the next decade."
Han Sung Joo, director of the Ilmin Institute of International Relations and former South Korean foreign minister, noted that the improved Seoul-Pyongyang ties were reflected in the two governments' responses to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
North Korea reacted by denouncing terrorism, and although it immediately criticized the U.S. when it launched the airstrikes on the Taliban regime of Afghanistan, the language with which it condemned Washington was not so strong. North Korea was apparently trying not offend the U.S., he said.
Meanwhile, South Korean President Kim waited nearly a month after the terrorist attacks to make a comprehensive statement in response, and one of its priorities was on "maintaining normal" relations with North Korea. "The South Korean attitude indicates the kind of care and pains that President Kim has taken to nurture the relationship with North Korea," Han said.
On the prospect of relations between the two Koreas, Han indicated that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's reciprocal visit to Seoul may not take place soon. Pyongyang believes it can reap more economic benefits from Seoul by holding out the possibility of Kim's visit, so that South Korea will continue to try to appease North Korea, he said.
But despite the lack of progress in North-South relations since the historic summit in June 2000, Han predicted North Korea is unlikely to return to its hardline position, either by resuming its nuclear program or long-range missile tests.
"The sunshine policy gave North Korea a stake in behaving . . . and (North Korea's failure to behave) would be catastrophic (to the country) economically and diplomatically."
Han also said that as South Korea, Japan and the U.S. maintain cooperation in dealing with issues concerning the Korean Peninsula, "We should not let issues of the past -- (like) the textbook issue and the Yasukuni issue -- get in the way of the trilateral cooperation." Relations between Tokyo and Seoul were strained in recent months over the Japanese education ministry's approval of a controversial history textbook that critics say glosses over Japan's wartime atrocities, as well as Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's August visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, which enshrines convicted war criminals together with the nation's war dead.
Paul Hsu, senior partner of the Taiwanese law firm Lee and Li and a professor of law at the National Taiwan University, said relations between China and Taiwan "are the opposite" of the North and South Korean relationship. While leaders of the two Koreas have realized a historic summit despite little business interaction between the two, the leaders of China and Taiwan have no official contact despite there already being a huge amount of trade and investment across the Taiwan Strait.
"If future historians look back at the present status of cross-Strait relationship, they will find this a very unique episode in human conflict . . . in that economic relations can grow to a phenomenal extent despite political and ideological differences," he said. " If such a phenomenon can be successfully transferred to other regions of conflict, chances of clashes can certainly reduced, and regional stability will be enhanced."
He cited one estimate that accumulated investment by Taiwan in mainland China could reach $100 billion, even though direct investment is still legally banned.
An increasing number of Taiwanese manufacturers are moving production facilities to mainland China to make "made in China by Taiwanese" products, he said. Shanghai alone has 300,000 Taiwanese businessmen, and the number is increasing, he added.
"China is in transformation . . . and I think it is an opportunity," he said. The transformation will change its economic system, social values, legal system, and eventually its political system, he argued.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.