The March coincident index of economic indicators, which gauges the current state of the economy, measured above 50 percent -- an indication of economic expansion -- for the ninth straight month, the Economic Planning Agency said Tuesday.

Preliminary data showed the coincident index registered 87.5 percent for March, after 100 percent in February.

In March, the index of leading indicators, as well as that of lagging indicators, posted readings above 50 percent, resulting in all three EPA-published monthly indexes staying above the boom-or-bust line for the first time since November 1996.

Despite the showing, EPA official Yoshihiko Senoo essentially repeated what he said after February's figures were released, refraining from declaring the onset of a full-fledged recovery.

"As far as the coincident index is concerned, we believe the economy is heading toward an improvement," he said. The coincident index comprises 11 economic indicators. The index indicates the percentage of those indicators that showed an improvement in comparison with three months earlier.

Eight of the 11 indicators were available for the preliminary data release.

Of the eight, the indicator for department store sales posted a decline. Production indicators such as industrial production, meanwhile, showed gradual increases, while employment data such as overtime work pointed to a gradual improvement.

But Senoo said the coincident index should rise to around 90 percent after a revision, scheduled May 19, as two yet-to-be-released indicators -- one for capacity utilization and the other for material consumption -- are likely to show improvements.

The leading index, comprising 11 indicators and deemed to forecast the activity trend several months ahead, registered 87.5 percent, remaining above 50 percent for the 13th month in a row.

The lagging index, consisting of eight indicators and used to confirm past peaks or troughs, posted 60 percent, after staying below 50 percent for 31 months in a row, a record-long period.

According to Senoo, past data shows the lagging indicator typically rises above 50 percent 11 months after the economic cycle hits a trough but he said it does not necessarily mean March's rise above 50 percent confirms a trough back in April 1999.

The prevailing view among private-sector economists is that the Japanese economy bottomed out in the April-June period of 1999.

Spending falls again

Average monthly spending by Japanese households in fiscal 1999 declined a real 1.2 percent over the previous year to 321,215 yen, for the fourth consecutive year of fall.

In a report released April 28, the Management and Coordination Agency said spending by families of wage earners -- accounting for roughly 60 percent of all household spending -- averaged 345,121 yen, down for the third straight year. an inflation-adjusted 1.3 percent for the third straight year of drop.

The fall reflects declining income, which fell by 2.5 percent over the previous year, the biggest drop since fiscal 1963, from when comparable statistics became available, the agency said.

The agency releases data for wage earners' households earlier than the overall figures.

Spending by other households averaged 283,129 yen per month, down 0.7 percent in real terms.

Overall, spending on food -- the largest segment of household spending -- fell 1.6 percent for the ninth consecutive year of fall, while spending on health and medical treatment rose 3 percent for the first rise in three years.

Home-related spending -- such as for remodeling, maintenance and rent -- also rose, up 4.2 percent for the first rise in three years.

The agency said overall household spending in March alone stood at 335,291 yen, down 4.3 percent in real terms from a year earlier.