Kishida’s tenure has simple lessons for his successor

This week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that he would not seek a second term as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

That means that he will step down as prime minister when his term ends in September. That decision comes as something of a surprise. While his tenure has been rocked by scandal — some originating in the party he leads, others the product of his own flawed decisions — he had a recent rebound in polls, suggesting he might be able to secure a second term. His readiness to step down, however, indicates that his party did not back that ambition.

The race to succeed him promises to be the most competitive in memory. There is no heir apparent and the party’s internal structure has been decimated by scandal, making it difficult for any person or group of politicians to play kingmaker. It isn’t clear what lessons can be drawn from Kishida’s term in office, other than politicians must genuinely lead their nation and make tough choices. Kishida did not.

Any assessment of the Kishida administration will be mixed. He ushered in important foreign and security policy changes, consolidated and strengthened the alliance with the United States and created a “lattice” of security partnerships with other nations that will help promote peace and stability throughout the region. Especially important was his readiness to move forward with South Korea, joining with President Yoon Suk-yeol to rebuild that troubled relationship.

The highlight of his tenure should be his chairmanship of the Group of Seven advanced industrialized nations last year. Hosting the leaders summit in Hiroshima, he championed the notion that “security is indivisible” and forged a united front to protect the rule of law against efforts to rewrite the territorial status quo. Kishida will be remembered for asserting Japan’s leadership in the region and the world.

He had economic successes as well. His government made progress in the fight against the deflation that has produced economic stagnation. This year, the shuntō spring labor campaign produced the largest pay rises in over three decades at some of Japan’s biggest companies. Stock prices have reached new heights and Japan has enjoyed an influx of foreign capital, a testimony to positive changes in corporate reform and a growing sense that this country is now a growth opportunity

Any assessment must also note the significant liabilities that he accrued. Most notable were the scandals that dominated his tenure. Following former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s assassination, the role of the Unification Church in Japanese politics was exposed and the public was appalled to discover that many of the nation’s leading politicians — and its ruling party — were in thrall to the religious group.

That was followed by revelations that the LDP had hidden and obscured the origin and use of funds for years. The scandal touched many of the party’s senior politicians and the failure to hold them accountable to rules and regulations that govern political funding suggested that some people were above the law. Kishida said that the scandal was the chief factor in his decision and that he would step down to “take responsibility,” adding that “The first and most obvious step toward showing that the party will change is for me to step aside.”

We also wonder whether U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to abandon his contest for reelection in favor of a generational change in his party influenced the prime minister’s thinking. There is a big difference, however: Biden secured the nomination of his party for the forthcoming campaign, while Kishida likely canvassed his supporters and found that he had no such certainty.

With his Cabinet’s approval rating hovering around 20% and that of the party only a little higher, the LDP worried that Kishida would be a liability in any national election, and one must be called by October 2025.

In elections past, LDP heavyweights, such as former prime ministers or leaders of large factions, would have met and agreed on a candidate and his Cabinet. Their prestige and influence (and the promise of future rewards or punishment) would ensure that their juniors backed that decision.

Scandals and the aging of senior politicians have undone that organizational structure. It is not clear that anyone has the power to convene and make decisions or ensure that they are followed. Nevertheless, senior politicians are likely to retain considerable influence as backbenchers will continue to look to them for guidance.

While any list of candidates remains hypothetical — a challenger has to secure the signatures of 20 party members to be nominated and no one was willing to openly challenge the incumbent — a "gaggle" of politicians are expected to throw their hats into the ring. Success depends on the image the party wants to promote.

If it is age and experience, then former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, current Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, Digital Reform Minister Taro Kono or Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi might fit the bill. Ishiba is a perennial candidate and has already expressed interest in running.

Each has liabilities, however. Neither Ishiba nor Motegi is very popular with fellow parliamentarians, and the later was tarred by the funds scandal. Kono is considered a wild card. Hayashi has been called soft on China by conservatives and is also a member of the Kishida faction, which has prompted some to suggest he not run out of fairness.

If the party wants a new look, then it could turn to Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (who is also a member of the Kishida faction and therefore subject to the same call to step aside as Hayashi), Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, Takayuki Kobayashi, the former minister for economic security or former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi.

Takaichi ran well in a previous race with Abe’s support, but it isn’t clear that she has hope without him. Koizumi is a favorite among the public, but he is young and untested, as is Kobayashi. There is also a danger that multiple candidates will split the vote for a new look, allowing the old order to remain in place.

The eventual winner must woo LDP politicians. The voting system gives prefectural offices a vote in the first round — and they are more sensitive to views of laypeople. If there is no winner in that round, however, subsequent votes only tally parliamentarians, making their views determinant.

Thus far, there is no clear front runner — and one is unlikely to emerge until the voting begins. Kishida’s experience provides important guidance for candidates. Japan is looking for a leader. While the bureaucracy can keep the ship of state on course, it still needs a capable person at the top to provide vision and make the hard choices that are inevitable.

If Kishida is credited for implementing key components of the Abe vision, he is rightly faulted for avoiding the difficult setting of priorities. He sought to expand spending on defense, social services for the elderly and child care, but he refused to explain where the money would come from. It is revealing that even his proposal last year to offer a tax rebate was rejected by voters as a cynical play for support.

Kishida spoke of “a new economics” that stressed equality but failed to push through reforms that would give that happy talk substance. Recent market volatility exposed continuing dissatisfaction with the progress in changes to corporate governance and capital efficiency.

The world is changing and there is a sense that Japan is not keeping pace. That is the simple reality behind Kishida’s persistent lack of popularity, even as he wins the applause of other world leaders. The nation's next leader must understand that basic fact, lay out a vision for the country and then implement it. It will not be easy. There is no glide path to success in a rapidly evolving world.