With resounding wins in Tuesday’s Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, Democrats substantially repaired the most important cracks that U.S. President Donald Trump made in their coalition in the 2024 election. That gives Democrats reason for optimism — though not yet certainty — that they are on track for a solid recovery in the 2026 midterm election.
Democrats Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia regained significant ground among two groups where Trump made noteworthy advances last year: working-class people of color and young people, according to both media exit polls and county-by-county election results. The two Democrats also improved among college-educated voters, essentially matching the party’s 2024 showing with White voters and improving among non-White voters with a four-year degree, according to the Voter Poll conducted by SRSS for a consortium of media organizations. All those groups also provided huge margins for Proposition 50, the redistricting ballot initiative backed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, which passed convincingly in California.
Even the most optimistic Democrats don’t contend this week’s results prove the party has solved its problems with those voting blocs. Since the 1970s, New Jersey and Virginia have almost always elected governors from the party that lost the presidential race the previous year. And Trump’s 2024 gains among blue-collar minority voters were concentrated among irregular voters who are the least likely to show up for an odd-year election.
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