The latest moves in the China-U.S. trade confrontation suggest we have entered a new, more dangerous phase.

Over the past week, Beijing tightened export controls on rare earths and related processing technologies, while Washington threatened to raise tariffs to 100% on Chinese goods effective Nov. 1 and imposed stricter export controls on key software. At the same time, China began charging port fees on U.S. ships, a retaliatory step designed to ratchet up pressure.

These developments reflect a deeper shift in Sino-U.S. relations: Notwithstanding momentary attempts at detente, the long-term path is toward competitive confrontation. Mutual dependence in sensitive areas is shrinking rather than growing. Minor skirmishes, tariff threats and export controls are now part of the normal rhythm of the relationship, and the odds of a sweeping, durable trade agreement are low.