The next prime minister of Japan should exhibit signs of good judgment, decisiveness, personal courage to make the tough decisions and the ability to articulate a positive but pragmatic vision for Japan.
Seen through the lens of a Japanese conservative, the next leader’s political and security priorities are clear-cut: First, keep Japan safe in the face of inevitable natural disasters and from external threats; second, employ Japanese conservative values as a unifier of the nation; and third, maintain a transparent and accountable governance system that consistently produces capable leaders who can champion Japan’s interests and ensure national unity.
As described previously, the three key elements of Japanese conservatism are to preserve Japanese identity, traditional values and customs by maintaining a shared sense of community and the family, sustain the imperial succession and confirm by constitutional amendment the role of the Self-Defense Forces in securing the nation's sovereignty.
A look at personal traits, the priorities and elements of Japanese conservatism when applied to the five candidates for the next LDP presidency, led to my following conclusions:
Yoshimasa Hayashi
As a longstanding member of the Kishida faction, Hayashi comes from the liberal wing of the LDP and has demonstrated little support for Japanese conservatism. His positions on the imperial succession and amending Article 9 of the Constitution do not align.
His extensive involvement in the Japan-China Parliamentary Friendship Association, including serving as chairman, and his leadership roles in the Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba administrations when they were hesitant to respond strongly to Chinese provocations such as the installation of buoys in Japanese waters and repeated aircraft and naval incursions, raise questions about his leadership.
As one of Kishida's lieutenants for many years, he would continue to seek his guidance. Hayashi would not find cooperation easily extended from the other conservative parties, but he may find support from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party.
Under Hayashi, the decimation of the conservative wing of the LDP, which began under Kishida and grew under Ishiba, would continue. Hayashi would tilt the party more to the center-left, making it indistinguishable from the CDP. Hayashi is the least "Japanese conservative" of the group.
Takayuki Kobayashi
With an elite background — University of Tokyo Law, a master’s degree in public policy from Harvard and 11 years at the Ministry of Finance — Kobayashi has strongly supported the critical elements of Japanese conservatism, as well as the country's security priorities. He has powerful support from the LDP's Youth Association. Among the five candidates, he would be uniquely able to attract the younger conservative voters who left in droves after Shinzo Abe's death and Kishida's moves to shift the party to a more liberal stance.
Kobayashi would also attract the cooperation of Nippon Ishin no Kai (the Japan Innovation Party) and the Democratic Party for the People, which would be critical were Komeito to leave the ruling coalition. Komeito is not a conservative party; it is losing its support base and the time for accommodation is over.
A new ruling coalition would recast the LDP as the leader of Japanese conservatism and position it to appeal to 70% of the electorate who voted for conservative parties in the past two elections. One open question: How does Kobayashi respond to being severely tested?
Shinjiro Koizumi
Perhaps due to his relative youth, but more likely because of his character, Koizumi, 44, has not demonstrated deep personal convictions regarding Japanese conservatism or security priorities. Like his "reformer" image, his visits to Yasukuni Shrine seem to be imitations of his father rather than from a sincere belief. His attractiveness to other conservative parties is limited.
According to various media polls, his strongest demographic appears to be older voters, especially older female voters, rather than the younger ones that the LDP hemorrhaged during the past three years.
His personal traits do not align with what a successful Japanese leader must have to manage the LDP and govern the country effectively. Examples of good judgment, decisiveness and the courage to make the tough decisions in his professional career are not evident. There is concern that he would be the face of an administration, but others would exert strong influence over him.
Toshimitsu Motegi
Motegi has the strongest resume of any candidate in terms of senior-level party and globally important Cabinet roles. If this were 20 years ago, Motegi would be a shoo-in, as LDP leadership elections were then mostly about seniority and experience. Today, they are about attracting younger voters and being able to persuade other conservative parties to align with the LDP.
His conservative credentials are solid and he would be able to deal effectively with other global leaders. Still, as the party leader, he would not inspire those LDP members who left the party or fled to the other conservative parties. He would have a hard time convincing voters that the LDP looks different. Motegi's major negative is that we are selecting a new leader in 2025, not in 1995.
Sanae Takaichi
Like Kobayashi, Takaichi checks all of the boxes for conservatism and security priorities. If elected, she would become the first female prime minister in Japanese history, clearly showing a new LDP to the world, unlike Hayashi or Motegi.
The primary concerns with Takaichi stem from personal traits, specifically decisiveness and courage in making tough decisions. Branded an "Abe protege" and labeled ultraconservative and hawkish, Takaichi has been attacked mercilessly by the left-wing media, the opposition and even the LDP's liberal wing. Most of these charges were misogynistic or lacked factual basis. Still, she did not fight for herself as strongly as her role model Margaret Thatcher when the latter faced similar headwinds. She is playing the game by the old boys' rules.
Takaichi would find it hard to unify the party and would be distracted by endless ad hominem attacks, which would impact her ability to govern.
When Takaichi received a personal invitation to visit Donald Trump after his election win in November 2024, she declined, explaining she did not think it was appropriate to go before the prime minister. Akie Abe, widow of former Prime Minister Abe, went instead. Takaichi did not exhibit the "Thatcher toughness" required to seize an opportunity when presented. While we would all love to see the glass ceiling broken in Japan, is Takaichi more comfortable as a No. 2 than a No. 1 figure? If she does not come out swinging, we know the answer.
So in terms of conservatism, the five candidates would rank in the following order: Kobayashi, Takaichi, Motegi, Koizumi and Hayashi.
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