Trump return leaves Japan’s leader with no time to snooze

As his second official spell as prime minister began on Monday, Shigeru Ishiba was asleep at the wheel.

Ishiba drew headlines for a moment after he was caught napping in parliament during proceedings for his own nomination as Japanese leader. It’s common for Japanese politicians, who must sit through hours of tedious parliamentary debates that most global peers don’t, to catch up on microsleep. Ishiba’s spokesman blamed cold medicine.

But Ishiba might well wish he had stayed asleep. He already had plenty to worry about. He’s still smarting from a resounding election defeat and has just formed a minority government, Japan’s first in three decades, which is sure to be unstable. The head of the party whose help he needs most to pass legislation is in trouble, having just admitted to an extramarital affair. Two of Ishiba’s own Cabinet ministers and the leader of his coalition partner lost their seats in the election rout. That the Liberal Democratic Party didn’t join the growing list of global incumbents turfed out of power this year might just be due to timing, with Japan’s main opposition party also in the midst of a reorganization.

Now the increasingly unpopular prime minister must deal with the return of Donald Trump, a man who once said the only thing he liked about Japan was that people bow instead of shaking hands. After three years of record stability in the Japan-U.S. alliance, it injects a new level of chaos into a relationship crucial for regional peace. Ishiba’s phone call with the U.S. president-elect — described by the prime minister as "outstandingly friendly” — was, at just five minutes, much shorter than those held with other world leaders. Now he must arrange a high-stakes meeting with Trump recalling memories of 2016 when Japanese officials hastily cobbled together a visit to Trump Tower by then-leader Shinzo Abe, complete with a present of a golden golf club. That gesture kicked off a golf-led bromance that protected Japan from Trump’s excesses.

Tokyo is prepared this time, having welcomed several of the president-elect’s inner circle in recent months. Former Prime Minister and LDP Party President Taro Aso was dispatched to New York in April, with expectations the former leader could be Japan’s "Trump whisperer” in the absence of Abe, who was assassinated in 2022. But after Aso backed rival Sanae Takaichi in September’s party leadership race, he was punished with a figurehead position that pushes him to the fringes of the ruling party. Aso’s look of sheer disdain at Ishiba’s parliamentary napping suggests he might be of limited help.

The prime minister could therefore find himself exposed. His political mentor, the 1970’s Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, once said a leader needed to have experience heading two of the three big ministries: finance, foreign affairs and what is now the ministry of economy and trade. Ishiba has led none of them. Personally, will Trump have patience for Ishiba’s circuitous and often grating conversational style? Where Abe was educated in the U.S. and among the circles of power since boyhood, Ishiba has limited international experience. While Abe spent much of his visits on the links, Ishiba reportedly hasn’t golfed since becoming a lawmaker nearly four decades ago. (His South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk Yeol, has taken up the sport for the first time in eight years.)

On Monday, Ishiba put considerable distance between Trump’s transactional approach to international relations and his, saying he didn’t think diplomatic relations were "a world of give-and-take deals.” Given the president-elect seems to have limited appetite for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, it seems highly unlikely he’ll back his Japanese counterpart’s dated plan for an Asian version. And while the two men might agree that the current U.S.-Japan alliance is unfair, they are likely to find they differ about which side bears the inequitable burden.

Thanks in large part to Abe’s diplomacy, Japan largely dodged the trade wars of the first administration. But since then, its trade surplus with the U.S. has only increased, with exports there rising more than 40% compared with 2016, overtaking those to China. Officials fret that Trump may also demand Japan increase its defense spending to 3% of gross domestic product, even as the country struggles to finance its goal of spending 2%.

Yet in these differences, Ishiba might even spy an opportunity. That seemed to be the message of a recent controversial interview with his foreign policy adviser, Takashi Kawakami, in Daily Cyzo.

While the interview largely made waves in English for Kawakami’s comments on the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the U.S. Capitol, for watchers of the countries’ alliance, it contained more concerning thoughts. Kawakami suggested that by exploiting Trump’s lack of interest in traditional partnerships, Japan can become a "truly independent country,” rethinking its position not just vis-a-vis vis the U.S., but also China, Russia and North Korea.

In theory, the idea of a Japan with greater independence is a good one. Yet in the reality that is the current unstable Indo-Pacific region, it is worrying to think of Tokyo using Trump to drift away from Washington. Would a Japan no longer under the U.S. security umbrella need its own nuclear weapons? Could a more nonaligned country be pulled closer into China’s sphere of influence?

It still seems unlikely that Ishiba or his advisers will be around long enough to make a lasting impact on U.S.-Japan relations: He has bought time to prioritize the passing of this year’s extra spending and next year’s regular budget, but after that all bets are off, especially amid a looming Upper House election next summer.

But then, on both sides of the Pacific, everything about politics in the past few months has surprised the experts — including the identity of both of the leaders of one of the world’s most crucial alliances. This is no time to snooze.