With Kishida’s sudden departure, who will lead Japan?

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Wednesday made a surprise announcement that he would not be seeking reelection in next month's Liberal Democratic Party presidential election. As a result, the ruling party will select a new leader and the country will have a new prime minister.

Considering there is another full year left before the current term of the Lower House expires, Kishida’s announcement has many wondering why. To make sense of the situation, here are five points that may help.

The first is that although Kishida's sudden announcement may have been a surprise, the fact that he would be replaced this September is not. The average tenure for an LDP prime minister is only about 2 1/2 years — a mark that Kishida surpassed earlier this year. Save for a few outliers like Eisaku Sato, Junichiro Koizumi, and, most recently, Shinzo Abe, the party has tended to cull its own leadership to manage domestic support and internal party politics.

Kishida is no exception. His approval rating has been on a steady decline owing to a series of scandals and has hovered at historical lows since late last year. Kishida was spared an earlier exit owing to the absence of general elections, disarray among the opposition parties and a lack of LDP consensus on an appropriate successor.

So the fact that the LDP was going to replace Kishida this year was all but a foregone conclusion — the main variable was simply the timing. The LDP had three windows in 2024 in which they could have done it: before the parliament opened in January; in late March/early April after the budget passed; or in the period between the ordinary and extraordinary sessions of the parliament (which is now).

The second point to understand is there would not be substantial changes in security and foreign policy with a new prime minister. This leadership change is more about domestic politics and the economy.

In fact, one of the things that kept Kishida's public opinion numbers from reaching record instead of historical lows was his leadership on the global stage. His last high points came in 2023 after his surprise visit to Kyiv and when Japan hosted the Group of Seven Summit in Hiroshima. Observers should not expect any LDP leader to reverse course on the foreign and security policy that has been among the chief successes of the current administration.

Instead, the new prime minister will have two key objectives: rebranding the party and tackling economic issues. The LDP needs a facelift after languishing in the public opinion doldrums, which would seem to call for a different approach from the party's traditional leadership candidates. Will they be able to break from convention in picking a reformer, someone younger, their first female leader or some combination of the three?

As for economic issues, the new leader must address the problems most important to Japanese voters; namely, the rising consumer price index and static wages. In short, household income has not been rising at the rate of the cost of goods, meaning that even if some macroeconomic indicators for Japan look fine, it is not feeling that way for the lower and middle classes who are left wondering why their yen is not going any further despite Kishida's many promises.

One of the contributors to the downturn in public opinion for Kishida was his failure to carry out his “New Capitalism” platform. The main tenet of this proposal was stimulating economic growth while improving wages and purchasing power for individual households. Unfortunately, Kishida was never able to make any headway on the policy initiatives needed to generate such outcomes. Any would-be successor must come with a plan for achieving progress where Kishida could not.

The third point is that the LDP will be picking its next leader with the upcoming Lower House election in mind. The next general election must happen no later than October 2025, but the ruling party tends to dissolve the parliament and call a snap election when the timing is most favorable.

Right now, the main opposition party — the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — is still in disarray, unable to coalesce beyond any distinct policy platform other than the notion that they are not the LDP. There is also Nippon Ishin no Kai, which has gained some ground but has failed to extend far enough beyond its traditional power base in Osaka.

While the LDP has been able to ward off the opposition from any major gains during Kishida’s tenure, many in the party are concerned they will not be so lucky in the next Lower House election. If the LDP is unable to rebrand itself, many sitting parliamentarians could lose their seats. Conversely, a successful change in leadership that excites public approval could provide a window of opportunity for a snap election before the opposition has a chance to ready itself. The party will have both scenarios in mind as it chooses its next leader.

The fourth point is that the field is open, meaning that there are no clear front-runners in this party presidential race. The public’s favorite choice, Shigeru Ishiba, also happens to be the least favored among party elites who have taken deliberate steps to block his accession to the country’s top job in the past. In a similar position is Taro Kono, who like Ishiba, carries public popularity without wide support inside the party.

There are others to watch in this race. Economic security minister Sanae Takaichi has already declared her intent to succeed Kishida, and she carries clout among the conservative elements within the LDP. Those elements have taken the most hits as a result of the recent faction money scandals, and they will be searching for a new champion.

Shinjiro Koizumi remains the most popular of the younger generation of LDP politicians and his standing in the race would be higher if not for missteps in his ministerial debut. However, his deepening ties with former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga may yield him a mentor and behind-the-scenes policy coordinator who can help mask his shortcomings. Also to note is former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, a rising star in the LPD. Kobayashi, while relatively unknown outside of the political center of Nagatacho, the 49-year-old politician is respected among his peers for his deep understanding of policy.

Then there is Toshimitsu Motegi, the de facto number two in the LDP and the would-be front-runner if the LDP was picking its leader in the traditional way. Under the old factional system, Motegi would be the shoo-in, but he will have significant work to do if his aim is to take over for Kishida next month.

The dark horse candidate is Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa. She has been a steady hand as a Cabinet minister and comes baggage free, unlike some other would-be leadership candidates. The issue for her will be garnering the votes necessary to make a legitimate run for the LDP presidency.

The fifth and final point is that the most important indicator in determining the next prime minister will be the rules used for the LDP presidential election. Those rules shape the alliance-forming that will take place as candidates work to secure the necessary votes. And in the past, LDP power brokers have not been above manipulating the rules to help achieve their desired outcomes.

The important things to understand about the party’s voting rules are one, both sitting LDP parliamentarians and prefectural chapters cast ballots in the opening round of voting; and two, Ishiba and Kono — while less favored among fellow parliamentarians — have stronger support among the prefectural chapters.

With this in mind, LDP power brokers could attempt to alter the voting rules to minimize prefectural votes like they did in 2020 to help Yoshihide Suga beat Shigeru Ishiba. They may leave the rules as is and focus on securing the alliances needed to push the vote to a second-round run-off where the prefectural chapters are not involved.

While there are still many unanswered questions, understanding these five points provide clarity where there seems to be chaos. Ultimately, there is a long-standing system churning inside the LDP right now, and it is now a matter of which candidate will best maneuver within that system and seize the chance to become Japan’s next prime minister.