A full-scale military war is still taking place today between Russian and Ukrainian forces in Ukraine.
It is certain that how this war ends matters greatly in thinking about the future of international security order. But at the same time, if we focus too much on the current situation of the war and forget to analyze the invasion scenario drawn by Moscow two years ago, we could risk being unable to see the new challenges that will arise over international security order.
On Feb. 24, 2022, when 190,000 Russian troops crossed the border and advanced into Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin was said to have believed the war would be over in three days.