It's time to consider a woman to take Japan's top job

Warning: What follows is pure speculation, untainted by “informed sources in Nagatacho” or a lifetime of study of the intricacies of habatsu (factions) in the Liberal Democratic Party or the genealogy of Japanese politicians.

Battered by scandal, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plumbs new depths of unpopularity. His survival as president of the ruling-LDP Party defies laws of political gravity. Really, Aoki’s law, named after former Chief Cabinet Secretary Mikio Aoki, postulates that a Japanese government’s days are numbered when the sum of the Cabinet's job approval rating and the ruling party's support rate falls below 50%.

According to a Jiji Press poll released Dec. 14, the Kishida Cabinet's approval was 17.1% and the LDP claimed just 18.3% support. Even I can figure out that those numbers add up to considerably less than 50%. Those numbers are bad, but they aren’t outliers: A Nikkei-TV Tokyo poll released Dec. 17 had Cabinet support dropping to 26%, while that of the LDP fell four points to 30%.

The immediate cause of his troubles is a funding scandal that has ensnared virtually the entire LDP, although the Abe faction — the biggest and most powerful — appears to be the worst offender. It is thought that as many as half of the 99 lawmakers in the Abe group allegedly pocketed funds, an amount that totals between ¥500 million to ¥1 billion. The problem is more widespread and criminal complaints have been filed against five LDP factions on suspicion of violating the Political Funds Control Act.

To cauterize the wound, Kishida forced the resignations of the Abe group’s senior officials in government, a list that included the chief Cabinet secretary, the ministers of trade and the economy, agriculture and internal affairs, and five deputy ministers and six political officers. One member, LDP policy chief Koichi Hagiuda has been asked to stay on until the government drafts a budget for the next fiscal year, a task that demands a senior figure to coordinate views within the LDP.

Tobias Harris, an astute Japan watcher and author of the definitive Abe biography, calls this a “once in a generation political crisis” that he says will not be resolved by changing or replacing some Cabinet ministers or even the prime minister himself. Remarkably, however, it isn’t Kishida’s only problem. The public increasingly views him as indecisive, too malleable and unable to demand accountability. That last charge stems from the belief that he depends on the Abe faction for his political survival since his faction — from which he recently resigned; it too has been tarred by the scandal — is fourth in size. His policies risk incoherence. He has offered tax rebates as his government seeks to increase funding for defense, senior services and child care.

It’s telling that lawmakers have turned down Kishida’s request to serve as chief Cabinet secretary, the second most important position in government. That looks like recognition that this government’s clock is ticking and they don’t want to be tarred by association with its failures. Jiji reported that one faction told the prime minister that none of its members would join his Cabinet.

Kishida might survive this moment, however. He is anticipated to go to Washington for a state visit early in the year and changing prime ministers before (or shortly after) such a high-profile diplomatic event is generally frowned upon.

More significantly, though, it isn’t clear that the LDP could agree on a successor from the usual pool of applicants and a knockdown, drag-out brawl is the last thing the party needs at this time. Nor for that matter, is it clear that anyone except the most desperate might want the job at this moment. Is the party prepared to trust its fate to someone who would normally be only a second- or third-tier candidate?

In addition, support for the opposition remains appallingly low and is still in single digits, although Nippon Ishin no Kai registered 12% support in the Nikkei poll mentioned above. In other words, disgusted as voters may be, they are not going to vote the LDP out of power. Without that threat, the LDP’s readiness to soldier on with Kishida is strengthened.

Let me propose a cynical alternative: It’s time for Japan to have a woman prime minister and that person is Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa. By cynical, I don’t mean to imply that Kamikawa is unqualified. She has served in the Diet since June 2000, has been justice minister, state minister for gender equality and social affairs, state minister for internal affairs and communications and is currently the foreign minister. She has a master's degree in public administration from Harvard. She is by all accounts smart, conscientious and hardworking.

It is cynical to suggest that this is her moment. Normally, the LDP presidency is reserved for men and a woman typically makes the short list as a result of some political calculation, i.e., the need for the party to look enlightened. In fact, however, a woman has never come close in an LDP presidential ballot.

This is consistent with its broader record on such matters. Japan was 125th among the 143 countries in the World Economic Forum’s gender parity report. In political empowerment, Japan was even lower, ranking at 138th.

Picking a female now would be the “axis shifting” move that would transform views of the LDP. It would distract attention from the scandal to the historic moment for women in Japan. And, most cynically, it would mean that a woman would be fixing a man’s mess, lowering expectations of her success and providing a quick reply if she proves to be no more capable than a male politician when trying to solve this problem. And if she succeeds, the party could just as quickly revert to form and chuck her out, coming up with countless reasons why her time is done. This is just the sort of logic that chauvinists in the LDP like.

It would be a Hail Mary for sure and is nothing more than a feverish speculation. And when it comes to political prognostication, my track record is poor: I first predicted a woman could become prime minister some seven years ago; we’re still waiting. Nonetheless, this could be the moment. It would be ugly and cynical, but it might just work.