Goldman Sachs Group’s head of global currency, rates and emerging-markets strategy says he’s learned two main main lessons from one of the biggest — and most-common — bad calls of 2023: the bet on post-pandemic China’s reopening boom.

At the beginning of the year, Goldman was among the chorus of Wall Street banks pinning their hopes for a bright 2023 in part on recovery in China, with strategists including Kinger Lau predicting a 15% rally in the Chinese stock market.

The expectation was that a bounce in the world’s second-largest economy would be the wave that lifted all boats, helping emerging markets globally to a banner year.