
Commentary / World Mar 8, 2022
How to make sense of market forecasts in wartime
Trying to predict whether economic activity will rise or fall is almost impossible because what you’re really trying to do is predict human behavior.
For Jared Dillian's latest contributions to The Japan Times, see below:
Trying to predict whether economic activity will rise or fall is almost impossible because what you’re really trying to do is predict human behavior.
The job of the government and the central bank are simply to create the conditions necessary for people to prosper. They are not doing a very good job at it, judging by the price of gold.
As it pertains to markets, it is less about the outcome of the election and more about the process.