China can expect a host nation bump in the medal standings at next year's Winter Olympics, but predicting exactly how well the country will do in Beijing is proving to be an unprecedented challenge for Simon Gleave and his team.
Gleave, the head of sports analysis at Nielsen's Gracenote, has used results data to forecast the medal table for every Olympics since 2012, but the global health crisis has thrown a wrench into the works.
While adjustments were successfully made for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic ahead of the Tokyo Olympics this year, Gleave is now wrestling with the fact that most Chinese winter sports athletes have not competed internationally in two years.