How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impact the Indo-Pacific?
Much depends on how the crisis resolves, but it’s not likely to shape events as many anticipate. Europe is half a world away, Russia has both a marginal presence — meaning it poses little threat — and a distinct role (arms supplier) in this region, and the logic behind diplomacy and national security policy in regional capitals regarding Moscow remains compelling.
Sylvie Kauffmann, editorial director and columnist at the French newspaper Le Monde, argued in The Financial Times last week that “a new Europe is emerging” in the wake of the invasion, citing Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of the European Union, who said that Europe “will be forged in crises.”