The global COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the prolonged period of political stability in Japan that started with the second administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the end of 2012.
Under Abe, Japan has played a key role as a counterweight to China’s growing global influence, particularly in Asia. Since the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president in 2016, Japan has also been a leading supporter of the rules-based order. Political uncertainty in Tokyo therefore has important implications beyond Japan.
The main opinion polls in Japan show a decline in support for Abe’s Cabinet over 2020. An unprecedented fourth term as president of the Liberal Democratic Party now looks unlikely for him. This partly reflects Abe fatigue — he is already Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. But his domestic policy agenda has also lost steam.