So far, U.S. President Donald Trump has had remarkably good luck: His administration has avoided a major international crisis not of its own creation. That luck has run out, however, with a deadly dispute between India and Pakistan. In previous showdowns on the subcontinent, the United States played a critical role in preventing tensions between nuclear-armed rivals from getting out of control. We are about to find out whether an erratic, hollowed-out Trump administration is capable of a similar performance.
India-Pakistan tensions over the disputed area of Kashmir have persisted since the birth of the two nations in 1948. The current crisis broke when Pakistani militants carried out the suicide bombing of an Indian security convoy, killing more than 40 Indian troops. After more than a week of threats and counter-threats, Indian planes have bombed suspected militant camps on the Pakistani side of the so-called Line of Control — the first time Indian forces had carried out strikes on the Pakistani side in decades.
Although the amount of damage caused is unclear, the bombings raised concerns that Pakistan would feel compelled to respond militarily — which it did Wednesday, reportedly shooting down two Indian fighter jets over Kashmir and capturing one pilot. The potential escalatory implications are severe — both countries have nuclear weapons, and Pakistani doctrine reportedly emphasizes using them early in a war with India due to its conventional military disadvantages.