The government of Thailand has announced that it will hold its long-delayed general election on March 24. Approval of the plans by the national Election Commission and the Royal Household Bureau means that campaigning can begin for what will be a tight race. Five years of military rule has not diminished the Thai people's desire to pick their own government, and if the past is any prologue, the populist forces that have been represented by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, his sister Yingluck and their Pheu Thai Party will prove formidable; fortunately for the ruling junta, it has rigged the game to ensure that it retains control over political outcomes.
Thailand has been ruled by a military junta since May 2014, when a group of officers led by former Army Gen. Prayut Chan-ocha overthrew then-Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to restore order after six months of protests that had paralyzed the country. The revolt against Yingluck was the manifestation of a deep split in Thai politics that emerged since her brother, billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, was elected prime minister in 2001. Thaksin was a populist who appealed to Thailand's disaffected rural population, which believes that they have been overlooked by the nation's elite — centered in Bangkok — as the country's economy prospered in the 1980s and 1990s. Thaksin was forced from office after a coup in 2007, and has lived in exile ever since, but he retains considerable political influence. His sister rode that support to office in a landslide election win in 2011. The Thaksin era has been marked by a disturbing cycle: An election win by populist forces, a revolt by urban elites who challenge the redistributionist agenda, a coup and then another election that is won by the populists.
Prayut, who named himself prime minister after the coup, has promised a return to democracy since he took power. Fearing that the cycle would resume, however, he has delayed elections. He appears to be betting now that the military's ability to govern through the crisis, stabilize the country and restore growth, and force the nation to adopt a new constitution, will permit his party to retain power. That remains a gamble, however: Thaksin remains popular and the forces he represented are formidable.