When Serbian nationalists assassinated the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary in 1914, they hoped the move would lead to the independence they craved from their imperial overlord. Instead, a finely balanced system of alliances collapsed into one of history's bloodiest wars.

Those involved in the battle for the future of the world's largest carmaking group, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, should consider that portent as they contemplate their next steps. Many at Nissan Motor Co. will no doubt cherish hopes that escaping the French control embedded in the combination would herald a brighter future. The risk, though, is that breaking the bonds tying it together could be more dangerous than anyone anticipates.

Nissan Chief Executive Officer Hiroto Saikawa on Monday revealed a police investigation into the group's founder and linchpin Carlos Ghosn, and announced plans to fire him from the role of Nissan's chairman. The testy response of Renault SA after a board meeting late Tuesday shows there will be no immediate surrender from the French: