The annual international financial meetings that convene each spring in Washington are practiced affairs: high-profile meetings and the release of annual reports, all leavened by social events that facilitate the networking and consensus building that is the lubricant of the global economic system. That routine has been shaken this year. The first blows came from the British vote to leave the European Union, and the rise of populist, nationalist movements in Europe has continued to shake one of the pillars of the world financial order.
The second blow was the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. Trump has rejected the foundational assumptions of contemporary international economics, eschewing multilateralism and focusing on trade balances even to the point of proving unwilling to back the boilerplate pledges to fight protectionism that have been a staple of economic meetings for decades. The result is genuine uncertainty about the guiding principles for global economic governance. This is more than unfortunate; it is dangerous.
The good news from this year's spring meetings of global financial leaders, held last week, is that the economic outlook is good. According to the International Monetary Fund, the "global economic recovery is gaining momentum, commodity prices have firmed up and deflation risks are receding." Projections are a little more optimistic than they were six months ago when the IMF released its last assessment.